Unprecedented US presidential race: Rise of multilateralist Democrats

AMERICAN elections are not as simple as they sound. Take the minimum 270 electoral college votes that are needed by either President Donald Trump and his rival Joe Biden to make their way to victory. They are 270 people entrusted by their respective parties —- Republican or Democrats —- to vote according to how the American people in each state have elected their next President.

When news headlines flashed 238 electoral college votes for Biden last night, as compared to 212 electoral college votes for President Trump, what that means is that all 238 (out of a minimal of 270) are already in the corner of Biden. *All he needed was another 32 electoral college votes, which will meet next month, to confirm Biden as the "President Elect," at which point Trump must respect the US Constitution to start the process of handing the reins of power to Biden to allow him to be the 46th president of the United States of America.

When I finished writing this article at 7am on Nov 5, poll results showed that Biden was pulling further and further ahead. Biden is doing much better than Hilary Clinton.

When Clinton won the popular vote in the 2016 US election by more than three million votes, it mattered not that more Americans were on her side at all. The rules of the game clearly affirmed that she must cross the minimum threshold of 270 electoral college votes, which she didn't, in November 2016. Therefore, losing her the whole election.

Indeed, during the interlude between November and December 2016, there were murmurs from various pundits and political commentators that the 270 people entrusted with the electoral college votes should - in the interest of the country - flip their votes to choose Clinton anyway, therefore, dumping Trump. That did not happen. Thus, Trump was successfully elected as the 45th US President.

In the current scenario, there is a high likelihood that Biden can immediately reach the 270 electoral college votes in the next 24 hours if he can claim the six electoral college votes of Nevada; which Clinton had once won. As things stand, Biden clearly enjoys a strong advantage as the votes are counted, ever slowly but surely.

Why is this the case? As of Nov 5, Biden appears to be leading in Arkansas, which has three electoral college votes. Biden is also projected to be leading in Nevada, which has six electoral college votes, as mentioned earlier, and Biden has narrowly taken Wisconsin, with 10 electoral college votes, with another 16 electoral college votes in Michigan that seem to be going to Biden too (Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/US-elections-2020/US-election-latest-Biden-edges-closer-to-270-with-swing-state-wins). That gives Biden the trajectory to win more and more electoral college votes, as compared with Trump.

Be that as it may, the only way for Biden to go beyond 270 electoral college votes convincingly, Biden's camp has to wait for the mail and early physical ballots to be counted too - which some believe have crossed 100 million ballots, the highest since 1927.

The voter turnout for the US election at 67% yesterday was the highest ever since the electoral contest between Vice President Richard Nixon's contest against John F Kennedy, which the latter won.

To form a strong presidency, beyond the West and East coast of the United States only, Biden has to ideally reclaim Pennsylvania, which is still in the corner of Trump. The 20 electoral college ballots from Pennsylvania, is crucial to Biden, as he has always claimed he is from Scranton, Pennsylvania. But as the mail-in ballots come streaming in as this is written, Biden can potentially flip Pennsylvania too in the next few days.

That being said, Trump is not giving up either. He believes he is leading in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, each of which gives him 20,16, and 15 electoral college votes respectively, to give him a total of 51 electoral college votes to add to his current 214 electoral college votes to make it a grand sum of 265 total electoral college votes. However, that is still five short of 270 electoral college votes to beat Biden.

In this sense, Biden is the one who seems to be charging ahead to the 270 electoral college votes first. To consolidate his victory, Biden's camp should not allow President Trump to suppress the mail-in ballots and the early voters, consequently, through any legal verdicts, as the mail-in ballots and early votes do verge on another 100 million votes.

They matter deeply to consolidate the moral mandate of Biden; especially granted that this election has been described by the global media as a close call. But the moniker of a close call does not have to stick in the minds of many if all votes are fairly counted. (Source:https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-biden-election). And to get them as bonafide voters, the lawyers of both sides have to squabble over the differences in state and federal laws on what constitutes a ballot after Nov 3.

(Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-biden-election). If Biden can take Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, as Nikkei Asia has reported on Nov 5, Biden can theoretically be the first to reach 270 as his 248 electoral college votes would soon be added with 10 electoral college votes from Wisconsin, 16 from Michigan, and six from Nevada.

What Malaysia can learn from this process is that democracy can be held peacefully, but the outcome can always be contested peacefully too, in the case of the United States all the way to the US Supreme Court, even if President Trump has lost his lucky streak.

With a pandemic that is looming over the US, where some 231,540 people have died as of Nov 2, with another 9,473,581 Americans also infected, a general election can be held only under the most extreme circumstances.

In the future, Malaysia can introduce E-ballots or E-voting to prevent any cross-contamination of asymptomatic carriers. This would ensure a vibrant democracy.

Meanwhile, it looks like we are going to have a multilateralists US President again!

> Dr Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.