The political message from Sg Bakap

IN THE run-up to the Sg Bakap by-election, many Perikatan Nasional (PN) leaders were nervous. After all, this had been a PKR stronghold since the 2008 general election.

And compared to other seats won by Perikatan on mainland Penang, this majority was one of the smaller ones. Some even confided that this was a seat Perikatan could lose.

However, the results tell another story altogether.

I have deduced the following from the voting analysis that was shared with me.

Voter turnout and support across different ethnic groups and young voters were compared to previous elections.

Among Malay voters, turnout slightly decreased to 76% from 82% in the 15th state election ( in 2023), while Perikatan maintained a high support rate of 85%, which was consistent with previous elections.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) continued to have low support among Malays, remaining at 15%. Chinese voter turnout saw a significant drop to 42% from 70% in PRN15, with Pakatan retaining strong support at 96% but Perikatan showing a slight increase to 4%.

Indian voter turnout slightly decreased to 74%, with Perikatan significantly increasing its support to 30% from 16% in PRN15, while Pakatan’s support declined to 70%.

Among young voters, Perikatan support increased from 50% in the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022 to 64% in this by-election, indicating a growing trend among younger demographics.

Conversely, Pakatan’s support decreased to 36% from 41% in PRN15.

Barisan Nasional (BN) was unable to lend any Malay support to Pakatan, especially among young voters after GE15.

Overall, Perikatan’s support has increased among Indian voters and marginally among Chinese voters. Malay voter support for Perikatan remains high and stable, and young voters increasingly favour it. So, the green wave is largely alive and kicking.

Why did Pakatan lose the Sg Bakap by-election?

Firstly, there was a noticeable disinterest among the locals, exacerbated by discontent over rising living costs and the removal of diesel subsidies.

Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli's hint of a potential increase in RON95 petrol prices further fuelled dissatisfaction, as his casual approach to the announcement was perceived as insensitive. This negative sentiment towards the government's handling of economic issues made it difficult for Pakatan to garner strong support.

Secondly, despite Pakatan’s robust campaign efforts, which included high-profile ministers, community events, and active campaigning by Rafizi, they failed to resonate with the Malay heartland.

Umno's dwindling influence in traditional strongholds and the party's internal conflicts contributed to the lack of enthusiasm among Malay voters.

The sentiment in Malay villages had shifted significantly towards PAS, highlighting Pakatan’s inability to penetrate these areas effectively. Furthermore, Umno members do not seem to like the idea of the unity government and are unwilling to back PKR.

Umno’s crisis of confidence continues with the Malay ground, and the largest beneficiary is PAS because it is now seen as both a protector of the Malays and Islam. PAS was previously seen more as an Islamic party and less as a Malay party.

However, that distinction, though artificial to some extent, has become irrelevant given the ebullient support PAS enjoys among the younger Malays. Additionally, the unity government's efforts to appease the Malays were not enough to counter the growing strength of the "green wave" led by PAS in Penang's Malay heartland.

Pakatan struggled to maintain its previously strong support among Chinese voters, which softened due to failure to deliver on manifesto promises.

The introduction of targeted diesel subsidies, the rise in the cost of living, and inflation have all negatively impacted the Chinese community.

There is a palpable frustration with DAP because it is now seen as a silent bride in this unity government. The perception that DAP leaders are acting more like bureaucrats than policymakers, coupled with their limited ability to advocate for Chinese cultural and linguistic rights, has eroded their standing among Chinese voters.

Also, DAP leaders have turned a deaf ear to their traditional supporters, and there are constant complaints that DAP leaders in government are inaccessible.

This was very different from the approach of MCA and Gerakan during the Najib administration, which went out of their way to appreciate, understand, and tackle the concerns of the Chinese community.

As one Chinese community leader confided in me, they appreciated the open-door approach of MCA and Gerakan. Even though problems were not solved, they always got a fair hearing. But with DAP, it is different. All they get in return is lectures on how the unity government must tackle the green wave and Chinese issues must take a back seat for now.

The Chinese dilemma is that they want political alternatives and MCA and Gerakan must play its part. MCA has a natural head-start because of its strong links with Chinese associations and guilds.

Furthermore, the Indian community has also sent a clear message by giving Perikatan one-third of its support.

The Indians are no longer a fixed deposit for Pakatan and, to some extent, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Furthermore, former Penang deputy chief minister II P. Ramasamy’s effort to dent DAP’s Indian support is working.

What can the unity government do to regain its groove?

Anwar stated that the unity government respects and accepts the defeat of the Pakatan candidate in the Sg Bakap by-election.

He acknowledged the voters' decision amidst the country's adjustments under the new Madani government. Anwar emphasised the government's renewed determination to champion the people's struggles and elevate the nation's dignity, committing to strengthening unity and implementing policies that reflect the country's ongoing changes.

However, much of what the unity government says these days is seen as esoteric, lofty, and hollow. It does not resonate with everyday Malaysians.

What we need is common sense, down-to-earth, and sensitive leadership and policies. It is not too much to ask for. I believe this is the political message sent by the voters of Sg Bakap.