The Indian factor

Deciding power?: Indian votes remain crucial in the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election. — The Star

THE result of the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) by-election may hinge on who the Indian voters love or hate.

With the community comprising 18% of the total voters – Malays about 50% and Chinese 30% – they are the kingmakers.

The seat became vacant when Kuala Kubu Baharu assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong of DAP passed away in March. She had won the seat by a 4,119-vote majority in the Selangor state elections last year.

The KKB by-election is a four-cornered fight. It’s Pakatan Harapan’s Pang Sock Tao vs Perikatan Nasional’s Khairul Azhari Saut vs Parti Rakyat Malaysia’s Hafizah Zainudin vs Independent Nyau Ke Xin.

The Chinese are expected to overwhelmingly vote for Pang of DAP, while substantial Malay voters will support Khairul of Bersatu.

Who will the majority of the Indian electorate back?

“The Indians like Anwar. They don’t like Hadi,” a political operative on the ground told me. He referred to Prime Minister and Pakatan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang.

I called political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali to get his insight on which leader the Indians liked and didn’t like.

“Basically, the Indians love Anwar. But some of them were disappointed with him (after he became Prime Minister). The reality is that Anwar’s promise and hope have not happened,” Mazlan said.

“They are disappointed with the unity government as promises like housing for the B40 have not been settled.”

The political analyst said many Indians felt that life was better in the era of Datuk Seri Najib Razak as Prime Minister than Anwar as PM.

“This is not true, but the information has not reached them on the ground,” he said.

The political operative noted that a majority of the Indian community felt that they should give Anwar a chance to fulfil his five-year term as Prime Minister.

“They told me that we should see what Anwar can do. While they say that Pas and Bersatu are always creating problems and can only talk,” he said.

The political operative also told me that Perikatan could not offer anything concrete to the Indian voters.

“Whereas Pakatan is trying hard to secure the Indian votes,” he said.

He explained that Pakatan controlled the resources of the Federal and Selangor state governments, whereas Perikatan had little to offer in terms of financial incentives.

Mazlan believed that the Indian community had no choice but to support Pakatan.

“If it wins, Pakatan can help the people as it is in power at the Federal and state levels. If Perikatan wins, it can’t do much,” he said.

Mazlan also said that the former MIC leaders who are campaigning for Perikatan have an influence on the Indian community.

“MIC, which is part of the unity government, is campaigning for Pakatan. But their ex-leaders have influence and are confusing the Indian voters,” he said.

“This is splitting the community. There will be a small swing towards Perikatan.”

Mazlan predicted that if there was a minor Indian voter swing to Perikatan, Pakatan could be in trouble.

Yesterday, I was on the ground in KKB town, which I am familiar with as it was a stopover before I went camping at the nearby Orang Asli settlement.

I thought that the by-election would be a teach-Anwar-a-lesson -poll, as non-Malay voters were disappointed with the Prime Minister’s unfulfilled Reformasi promises. But I sensed that the Indian community was more worried about bread-and-butter issues.

The community, especially the B40, is struggling with the rising cost of living. They are not interested in teaching the PM a lesson but in which party/coalition can improve their lives.

But as Mazlan warned, a minor swing of the Indian voters to Perikatan might make them kingmakers to an opposition victory. The political analyst did not want to give a number to this swing.

However, according to feedback from the political operative, who did not want to be named, only 15% of the Indian votes are needed for the seat, DAP holds, to fall.

With just a few days until the May 11 polling, Pakatan and Perikatan will woo the Indian community. The Indian voters know that after the by-election, they will probably be forgotten.