WILL the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) byelection next month be Pakatan Harapan’s Tanjung Piai defeat?
It was a significant loss for Pakatan, which had formed the Federal Government under prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad after its historic defeat of Barisan in 2018.
The Tanjung Piai result was a warning of dissatisfaction with Pakatan’s performance. It was also the beginning of the end of the Pakatan government, which eventually lost power in 2020 in the infamous Sheraton Move.
The KKB seat in Selangor goes to the polls on May 11 following the death last month of incumbent assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong of DAP.
It will be the seventh byelection after the 15th General Election in 2022. All incumbent parties won their byelections.
The difference between DAP of Pakatan and Gerakan of Perikatan in KKB in last year’s Selangor state election was a relatively close 4,119 votes.
It is a mixed seat comprising 50% Malay voters, 30% Chinese voters, and 18% Indian voters.
Interestingly, based on the numbers, Indian voters might play the kingmaker in deciding who will be the next assemblyman for the seat.
The Chinese were solidly behind DAP in the state elections last year. A big question mark is whether they will continue to support Pakatan. The other big question mark is whether they will vote in droves.
From talk in the Chinese community, some are disappointed with the non-delivery of “Ubah” (change) that the then Opposition -- Pakatan -- had promised when they got into power. Now that Pakatan is there, they don’t see much change.
Take the example of the corruption cases against Barisan leaders. Most of those who were charged with corruption have been given DNAA (dismissal not amounting to an acquittal) sentences.
The irony is that former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is the only one jailed. The former Umno president tak lepas (did not escape) even when his party had a leader as prime minister -- Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob then.
But now, with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister, some in the Pakatan crowd are angry that Najib’s sentence has been reduced. Will their anger show in the ballot boxes?
As for KKB’s Malay voters, they were not solidly behind any party. However, one thing to note is the high voter transference in the community for a Chinese candidate from a non-Malay-based party, Gerakan. It meant that Bersatu and PAS supporters previously voted for a Perikatan candidate regardless of whether he was Chinese or from a Chinese-based party.
The simple math of DAP’s victory in KKB is that it got the most Chinese votes (just 30% of total voters), and Indian and Malay voters topped it.
Will the Malay community, partial to Pakatan, still vote for a DAP candidate this time? The fight will probably be over whether Perikatan dominates the 3R (race, religion, and royalty) issues.
Another big question is whether Umno youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh, who has been raging over the “Allah socks” issue, will cost Pakatan the Chinese votes.
Some in the community are uncomfortable with DAP’s cosy relationship with its former archrival, Umno. They are also concerned that DAP can’t rein in Umno, which still uses the race card to try to remain relevant among the Malays.
DAP supporters are also wondering why it takes the King and not the Prime Minister to put a stop to the issue.
Could Dr Akmal win the Malay votes for DAP? Pretty doubtful, at the moment, right?
As Umno is in the unity Federal Government with DAP, it will be interesting to see whether Dr Akmal will campaign for the predominantly Chinese-based party. If he does, will he get more Malays to vote for DAP?
Interestingly, Bersatu and PAS of Perikatan have been neutral or silent over the socks issue. In certain 3R issues, Perikatan is now seen as the centre, while Umno -- as personified unfairly by the loud Dr Akmal -- has become the ultra-far right.
Will the Tanjung Piai result strike again in the KKB byelection?
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