Status quo in six state elections?

VOTER turnout? How large is the Malay swing? Ekonomi Madani? Mat Rempit voters? Out-of-state voters? Vote transferability between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional?

These are some of the factors that will determine the outcome of the six state polls on Aug 12.

After seven days of campaigning in Kedah, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor and Terengganu, I called three pollsters to check on what data they were getting on the ground.

The big surprise for Ilham Centre head of research Mohd Yusri Ibrahim is that Chinese and Indian voters have been telling his team that they are ghairah (passionate) to go out to vote. The pollster noted the mood was different in these two communities compared with their lacklustre interest in previous state elections, such as the Melaka and Johor state polls in 2021 and 2022, or by-elections before the 15th General Election (GE15) in November last year.

“The majority of Chinese and Indians we met on the ground were committed to going out to vote for Pakatan,” he said, referring to the Pakatan Harapan-led incumbent state government.

Mohd Yusri believes they are reacting to the campaign narrative being disseminated by Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional, which is related to religion and race.

“The narrative is not making them comfortable in Penang and Selangor and parts of Negri Sembilan. They want to maintain the Pakatan government in these states,” he said.

Malay voter turnout has always been high, according to the Ilham pollster.

“An election is like a pesta [festival] for Malay voters, especially on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and in Kedah,” he said.

Mohd Yusri observed that the “mood” of Malay voters is largely supportive of Perikatan.

“The data we are getting on the ground is consistent with the support which Perikatan got in GE15,” he said. “

“There’s an indication that Perikatan has the potential of getting the Umno votes.”

Does this mean there’s a political divide between Malays and non-Malays?

“Ethnicity is an important factor in these elections. There is polarisation – Malays moving to Perikatan while Chinese and Indians are heading for Pakatan-Barisan,” he said, referring to the Pakatan and Barisan Nasional coalition forming the current Federal Government.

He clarified that most of the Chinese are with the unity government but the Malays are split demographically. Malays in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are mostly for Perikatan, while in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan, the Malay voters are divided between Perikatan and Pakatan-Barisan.

Mohd Yusri said that although the Malay voters in seats north of Selangor mostly support Perikatan, Ilham forecasts that Pakatan-Barisan is still leading in the state.

Based on a survey conducted by Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) politics and governance research group head Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali, Malay voters are with Perikatan while the Chinese and Indians support Pakatan-Barisan.

However, the UTM pollster conceded that vote transferability between Pakatan and Barisan gives the two coalitions an edge over Perikatan in Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang.

“More than 56% of the Umno voters will vote for Pakatan, while 76% of Pakatan voters will support Umno. This will help Pakatan-Barisan win the three states,” he said.

In Kedah, Assoc Prof Mazlan observed that Perikatan is still influential. However, he said Pakatan-Barisan is making inroads.

For example, he said, in GE15, young voters’ support was split between Perikatan and Pakatan. “Now we see a swing to Barisan. There are seats in Kedah which the young voters might give to Umno,” he said.

He also said there was a “Gelombang Anwar” (the Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim “wave”) sweeping the country which will help Pakatan-Barisan.

For Kelantan and Terengganu, Assoc Prof Mazlan said that the PAS grassroots remain strong.

“A low out-of-state voter turnout will reduce the gap between the votes Perikatan and Umno will receive – if the outstation turnout is below 50%, Umno can close the gap,” he said.

The researcher’s poll reveals that Malay voters – depending on the state – will go out to vote in droves, but the number might be low for Chinese and Indian voters. In his survey in Selangor, about 70% of Chinese and Indian respondents said they would go out to vote, which he considers low.

“For me, that is low as there’s no guarantee those who said they would turn out to vote will go out. In Kedah, 95% of the Malays polled said they are going out to vote,” he said.

For Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, his on-the-ground feedback is that voters are “lethargic” about voting. He said voter turnout might be similar to previous trends in by-elections and state polls.

“They say this is a state poll that is not as important or exciting as a national election. The turnout could be lower than 70%,” he said, adding it was 73% for GE15.

However, he said in the last few days, many Chinese have indicated they will go out to vote.

“Before, they said voting was not important. But a party has asked them to turn out and they are now more keen to go out, especially in states that Pakatan controls,” he said.

Prof Mohd Azizuddin predicts the status quo will be maintained in Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang, which are currently under Pakatan rule. And, echoing most analysts, he said that Perikatan is strong in seats dominated by Malay voters.

But the contest for these Malay-dominated seats in the three Pakatan-controlled states is becoming closer as Pakatan-Barisan is fighting hard for the Malay votes, he said.

“People are paying attention to Anwar’s Ekonomi Madani. I’m not sure if they understand it, but at least for them, we have a direction for the economy,” he said, referring to mostly urban voters.

The political lecturer said the fight for Kedah is also surprisingly tight, with Perikatan having an edge. He believes the business community is swinging towards Pakatan-Barisan as it is worried a clash between Perikatan and the Pakatan-Barisan Federal Government would affect the state’s economy.

Young educated Malay voters are considering voting for Pakatan-Barisan, whereas the “Mat Rempit” voters are for Perikatan, he said.

“Urban young Malay voters living outside of Kedah could be kingmakers. Pakatan-Barisan winning in Kedah depends on those exposed to national policies and Ekonomi Madani information.”

So, basically, according to these three analysts, the results of the state elections will be the status quo. And also, as we said, it will also depend on voter turnout, the size of the Malay swing, Ekonomi Madani, Mat Rempit voters, out-of-state voters, and vote transferability between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional.