MALAYSIAN politics has been exceptionally animated lately, with ruling and opposition parties changing sides faster than they are changing clothes, catching many completely off guard.
While the current intense infighting within the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition seems ongoing and unending, it is in actuality paving the way for and eventually consolidating the dominant hold of PAS.
Barisan Nasional (BN), in the meantime, is actively re-establishing itself as the ultimate choice of the Malay community in creating an atmosphere of reconciliation. There are no indications the coalition will still fight steadfastly alongside Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim come the next general election!
As for DAP, which has been under tremendous political pressure of late, probability of it abandoning ship has surfaced, and the July party congress will provide a clearer picture.
Who is teaming up with whom before the election will mark the climax of the political drama.
The current political manoeuvres are principally geared towards a possible election later this year, and parties on both sides of the political divide are assiduously testing the water, staging political dramas to find solutions to their own problems.
That being said, the US-Israel strikes against Iran have remarkably escalated geopolitical and economic tension, complicating further the scenario to declare a favourable election date.
Beset by both domestic and international developments, PM Anwar has ironically gained the much-needed breathing space.
As the man with the power to dissolve parliament, he can opt to disregard domestic and external pressures for an early election to give himself more time to deploy more favourable election strategies.
At this juncture, all he needs is concentrate on mitigating the impact of the war on the people’s livelihoods and economy. After all, parties within the Unity Government prefer to keep the status quo at least until parliament is officially dissolved.
Amanah is perhaps the most predictable among the three components of Pakatan Harapan (PH), whereas cracks have verily shown up in the coalition’s most notable entity, PKR.
Although Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli is still with the party, a dozen of elected representatives have sworn allegiance. In the event he is expelled from the party, he will take with him not just his supporters but also the “Reformasi” spirit Pakatan has long enshrined.
There’s no way to tell whether Rafizi will follow the footsteps of Bersatu’s Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, finding himself a new home to reset his political career.
Feeling the weight of public pressure, DAP has chosen to confront the quandary and leave the decision to its 4,000 central delegates at the party’s July 12 congress.
As Secretary-General Anthony Loke has said, the upcoming congress will essentially be a party “referendum,” and all office-holders will quit en masse but will continue to support the Unity Government until the next election, if that is what the party delegates want.
If the 16th General Election is not held this year, will the party’s political show push it to greater political risks?
The question is: which Malay party will DAP ultimately align itself with? Will it go with Rafizi’s new setup and present itself to voters as “PH 2.0”?
One of DAP’s current election campaign arguments is that “it was a misstep for the Malaysian Chinese community to go with PAS.” And whether such argument can gain traction within the community depends on how sincere the Islamic party is wooing it.
Another argument revolves around non-delivery of reform pledges which the prime minister will have to answer to the voting public prior to the next election.
Some Indian members have already left PKR owing to a number of reasons, while the reform-minded have either aligned themselves with Rafizi’s camp or chosen to sit on the fence.
Meanwhile, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi—serving both as Barisan and Umno chief—is riding high, and the likelihood of him deserting Anwar in the next general election has significantly picked up in momentum.
In my December article “Will Zahid bid Anwar farewell,” I pointed out that the simultaneous appearance of several heavyweight leaders from different camps in Thailand suggested the emergence of a furtive political move dubbed “Sawadeekap Move,” which is now gaining momentum following Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s disclosure of a secret meeting between Hamzah and Ahmad Zahid in Bangkok over the formation of a new alliance and candidates for future PM and DPM.
It is said that PAS’ Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan and PBB’s Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof, the incumbent Deputy Prime Minister, were also at the meeting table.
If Barisan were to head the next government, Ahmad Zahid is understandably the natural choice for prime minister.
With heavyweights such as Khairy Jamaluddin returning to the fold, and himself momentarily free from litigation, a reunited Umno promises bright prospect for Ahmad Zahid to turn things around.
Under such circumstances, why should he humbly stick to Anwar when the nation goes to polls again?
It is also unlikely for MIC to have such political miscalculation as to turn themselves in to PN!
I used the analogy of Malay silat in depicting Malay politics—deceptive manoeuvres to identify the opponent’s weaknesses before making the decisive strike—in my earlier article “Is what’s happening between Bersatu and PAS—or Zahid and Akmal—for real?”
This tactic is, in essence, perfectly embodied in the Perikatan coalition today.
As newly appointed Perikatan chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar is ready to engage with the “four pillars” of the local Chinese community, is the community psychologically and politically prepared for it?
After a chaotic “civil war,” PAS finally seizes control of the opposition coalition, with Ahmad Samsuri at the helm, Takiyuddin Hassan as sec-gen, and Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor its treasurer-general. Muhyiddin and his Bersatu gang, meanwhile, have been forced to the back seat.
Sure enough Muhyiddin is not going to call it a day just that; he is waiting for the right time to strike back, and Azmin Ali will remain a most useful pawn.
As for Hamzah, he could rejoin Perikatan after the alleged Berjasa takeover, but chances of him returning to Umno are slim.
Bersatu originally had 31 Members of Parliament, but six subsequently left to become pro-government independents, 18 chose to stick with Hamzah, leaving only six on Muhyiddin’s side.
If Hamzah were to apply to rejoin PN in his capacity as Berjasa chief, would Muhyiddin, head of its component party, block the access? We’ll see!
Berjasa used to win 11 seats in the 1978 Kelantan state election and another four in the 1982 general election, but has subsequently slipped into decline and remained largely irrelevant nowadays.
Terengganu Mentri Besar Ahmad Samsuri is PAS’ prime ministerial candidate should the party come to power.
Some argue that his lack of religious affiliation might prevent him from gaining broader support of Islamic fundamentalists.
Nonetheless, I have repeatedly highlighted the fact that PAS has always prioritised long-term gains over instant benefits.
For the Islamic party, Putrajaya is just a short step away. The primary goal is to pick a leader with broad public acceptance to secure power first before addressing any factional imbalance that has arisen.
Samsuri is PAS’ carefully crafted prime ministerial candidate. He is well educated, speaks fluent English, has international perspectives, and his daughter speaks Chinese and is studying in Beijing.
His image clearly sets him apart from the many PAS leaders that we know.
The 48-year-old holds a PhD in Aeroengine Ignition and Combustion, School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Leeds, and was a engineer by profession before entering politics.
That said, Samsuri’s track record as Terengganu Mentri Besar, including the banning of performances at banquets from Thursday night through Friday afternoon, and requiring karaoke and other entertainment venues to close by 10 pm, has impacted the local Chinese community.
If this were to be expanded to the federal level, the lifestyles of Chinese and other non-Muslim communities would invariably be affected.
These are crucial issues PAS must clarify before attempting to engage with the Malaysian Chinese community.
As Samsuri is ready to engage with the “four pillars” of the local Chinese community—Chinese associations, Chinese businesses, Chinese education and Chinese media—is the community psychologically and politically prepared for it?
This is an inevitable question that must be considered with urgency.
We have had prime ministers from Umno, Bersatu, and now PKR; and it is as well entirely possible to have a PAS leader helming the federal government in the future!
Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg could also be a dark horse, but this very much depends on the final election outcome.
If PAS fails to secure a simple majority, the prime ministerial candidate could alter; the key lies with the distribution of seats among parties.
Sick of the frequent changes in government, the former Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah first approached Fadillah to form a government, before a decision was made between Anwar and Muhyiddin.
However, given PBB’s party convention, Sarawak and East Malaysia had to miss the historic opportunity, as Fadillah could not hold a government position higher than the party president Abang Johari, who could instead stand the chance if he were a parliamentarian.
As such, if Abang Johari were to run for a parliamentary seat this time, or contest both parliamentary and state seats for that matter, he could become the most watched political figure possibly reshaping Malaysia’s political landscape, with PAS gaining momentum.
Voter turnout has become increasingly fragmented, and the true determinant is the shake-up of post-election alliances.
The above hypothesis has been made based solely on current political dynamics. Any changes after the election will depend on the votes from all ethnic groups in this country.
While the next general election may not yet arrive anytime soon, the state elections in Sarawak, Melaka and Johor have to be held latest by early next year, and their results will dictate the general election’s direction.
No party can afford to take the three state elections lightly, and of course, it is safest is to have the state elections held concurrently with the general election.
That said, the Middle East war has derailed a carefully orchestrated plan for election timing. It’s now up to Anwar how he is going to deploy his game plan.
> Datuk Kuik Cheng Kang is Group Editor-in-Chief of Media Chinese International (Malaysia)
