‘Buffalo trading’ among parties seals the deal

IT looks like the “buffalo trading” did not take long – and caretaker Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor is likely to be sworn in soon, possibly in the wee hours of this morning.

With no coalition or party winning a simple majority of 37 seats in the 73-seat assembly, the wooing of the Independents and smaller parties to form a coalition to govern became important.

The three main contenders to lead a state government were the caretaker government of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and the two key opposition party or coalitions: Warisan and Barisan Nasional.

The three needed to make the numbers from other coalitions or parties like Pakatan Harapan, Upko and Sabah STAR as well as four Independents.

However, GRS looks set to form a government with a coalition of other parties and Independents (excluding Warisan).

If that happens, Hajiji will remain as Chief Minister.

As at press time, GRS looks set to have the numbers to form the Sabah government.

The one party that is not likely to feature in the equation is DAP.

The party has faced a wipe-out in the eight seats it contested after winning six seats in 2020.

Its “telur” (an analogy for its zero seat) performance had confirmed the swing felt two months ago that the Chinese were fed up with DAP.

That emotion got stronger a week before the Sabah polls.

Caretaker state Industrial Development and Entrepreneur Minister Datuk Phoong Jin Zhe lost in Likas, which he traded for his stronghold of nearby Luyang.

Two of the party’s MPs – Kota Kinabalu MP Datuk Chan Foong Hin, who is Deputy Plantation and Commodities Minister, and Sandakan MP and Sabah DAP secretary Vivian Wong – were both defeated.

There are several reasons for DAP’s absolute defeat.

The party ran an expensive campaign with sleek billboards and events held in expensive convention halls.

It was not the “tin milo” (passing a donation box to raise campaign money) party it used to be when it was in opposition.

The voters saw it as a “loaded” party that had forgotten its humble beginnings.

The presence of national leaders, who in the 2022 general election were darlings of the Chinese in Sabah, did not bring any benefit.

Those leaders were seen as a pale shadow of themselves now that they are in the seat of power at federal level.

Sabah DAP was also seen as not standing up for issues that the party had championed when it was in the opposition, such as corruption (the Sabah mineral controversy) and Sabah rights (the 40% special grant entitlement).

On a petty level, voters were unhappy that DAP state leaders accepted state titles like Datukships.

DAP’s losses in the urban Chinese seats were Warisan’s gain. The party led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal won all those seats.

However, Warisan’s gain in urban seats was offset by its losses of seats in Kadazandusun and Murut areas such as Moyog, Limbahau and Melalap, as well as in Muslim-majority seats such as Banggi, Bongawan and Petagas.

Three Independents who were incumbents won their seats, following the 2020 Sabah Election trend of three party-less politicians winning.

Datuk Awang Ahmad Sah Sahari had won the Petagas seat for Warisan in 2020 before defecting to PGRS, a GRS component.

However, he was not fielded as PKR got the seat under the GRS/Pakatan negotiation.

The PKR candidate was his younger brother, Awang Husaini, a former Putatan MP.

Former Warisan assemblyman-­turned-Independent Rina Jainal also retained her Kukusan seat.

In the 2020 election, she won under Warisan but later joined PHRS, a GRS component party. However, PHRS dropped her as the candidate.

The victories of the three Independent candidates showed that candidate matters.

They were known to constituents as the YBs of the seat from 2020 to 2025. And the voters did not punish them for jumping.

Independent Fairuz Renddan also retained his Pintasan seat, which he won in 2020 as a Bersatu candidate.

He had joined PGRS, which was established to replace the national party in Sabah but was dropped by GRS to allow Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia, the Usno president, to contest on a GRS ticket.

Pandikar Amin had bet with the media that he would win after he was announced as the candidate on Nov 12. Luckily for him, none of the press corps had taken him up on the bet.

Unofficial results indicate that two more Independents won in Bandau and Tulid, the seat with the most number of candidates: 14.

The Independents are kingmakers, so are Upko and STAR. They are likely to support GRS to form the government.

Sabahans have cast their votes, but the real power was likely decided in the quiet backrooms, where the horse trading – or political buffalo trading, as it is called in Sabah – has sealed the deal.