Alliances relying on family ties

THERE’S a parallel between the results of Wednesday’s Indonesian presidential election and the presidential polls in the Philippines in May 2022.

The children of the sitting presidents – Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, 62, and Rodrigo Duterte, 78 – were elected vice-presidents.

In Indonesia, the son also rises.

Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, the eldest son of Jokowi, was the running mate of Prabowo Subianto, 72.

A quick count shows that the Prabowo-Gibran ticket has won about 58% of the votes.

In the Philippines, the daughter also rose.

Former Davao City mayor Sara Duterte, 45, was the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, 66, and both won the president and vice-president posts in a landslide victory.

Will the Duterte and Jokowi families’ parallels continue as Prabowo becomes president in October?

Undeniably, Prabowo, who lost twice to Jokowi in the Indonesian presidential elections in 2014 and 2019, owes his 2024 victory to the Jokowi effect.

The effect comes from Jokowi’s popularity – more than 70% approval rating – and the power of incumbency.

A documentary, Dirty Vote, released on YouTube two days before 202 million eligible Indonesians went to the polls, claimed the president had used state resources to try to swing this week’s presidential election in favour of his Defence Minister, Prabowo.

Critics have accused Jokowi of manipulating eligibility requirements to install his eldest son as Prabowo’s running mate.

In the run-up to the Valentine’s Day polls, Prabowo promised to continue Jokowi’s policies and priorities, unlike the other presidential candidate, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who vowed “change”.

“Continuity” was the cornerstone of the Prabowo-Gibran campaign. If Prabowo keeps his promise, his administration will be Jokowi 3.0, advancing value-added manufacturing, expanding infrastructure, and developing the new capital, Nusantara.

Now that Prabowo has unofficially won the presidency, will he show his gratitude to the Jokowi family when he assumes power?

Or will Prabowo be his own man? Can Jokowi’s influence persist in a Prabowo administration via vice-president Gibran?

In the Philippines, arguably, the Duterte clan was partially responsible for Bongbong following in the footsteps of his father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr, to become president.

Months after Bongbong’s presidency, there’s a rift between House Duterte and House Marcos – to use a Game of Thrones phrase to describe the most powerful of the noble houses of the Seven Kingdoms.

The crack is so bad that former president Duterte has repeatedly accused Bongbong of drug use.

“Bongbong Marcos was high back then. Now that he’s the president, he’s still high... We have a drug addict for a president! That son of a %&£#@!” he said, using a famous Filipino swear word.

Duterte’s son, Sebastian, Davao City mayor, has urged Bongbong to resign. He called the president “lazy and uncompassionate”.

The feud didn’t come as a surprise to those following Philippine politics.

When I covered the Philippine election in 2022, insiders were already saying that Bongbong and Sara might be on the same team, but wait till they were elected, and the knives would come out.

Like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the rift between House Duterte and House Marcos arguably began in early 2023 with the removal of Duterte’s ally, former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, as Senior Deputy House Speaker.

Bongbong gave no official explanation, but it was understood that it was connected to the attempt to oust Speaker of the House Martin Romualdez, Bongbong’s cousin and close ally.

Back to House Jokowi and House Prabowo.

Even before Prabowo is sworn in, the current talk in Jakarta is whether Jokowi will remain the kingmaker in Indonesian politics.

In the 2024 election, he ‘‘dethroned” Megawati Sukarnoputri, the former president and current chairman of PDI-P, the largest political party in Indonesia.

Arguably, Megawati “made” Jokowi, an unknown politician who won the Solo mayor, Jakarta governor and Indonesian president posts under her grace as he was PDI-P’s candidate.

But in a fight between two political alphas, one has to win.

Megawati’s PDI-P bet, Ganjar Pranowo, former Central Java governor, only managed to get 18% of the total votes in the presidential race.

Meanwhile, Jokowi, a PDI-P member, tacitly supported Prabowo and Gibran.

The Jokowi and Megawati political clash split the PDI-P votes, with many picking Jokowi’s bet – Prabowo.

Will kingmaker Jokowi and his halus (subtle) Javanese political power remain relevant?

Or will former three-star general Prabowo remain true to his strongman image?

Will he be as powerful as his former father-in-law, Suharto, who ruled Indonesia for 32 years?

If that happens, Prabowo won’t be as gemoy (cute) as his 2024 rebranding projected.

Will there be a Duterte-Marcos rift parallel with the Jokowi-Prabowo political partnership?