The Bossku factor in elections

THE latest phenomenon in the Malaysian TikTok scene over the Hari Raya Haji period is “Bossku”.

On June 28, the social media team of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak uploaded his three-year-old Hari Raya Aidiladha greeting on his TikTok account. The post got 1.7 million hits, over 100,000 likes, and more than 10,000 overwhelmingly positive comments.

These are astounding numbers for a recycled greeting from a politician jailed for 10 months.

It looks like Bossku’s fans still miss him (the nickname surfaced when Najib campaigned for Umno in state elections in 2019).

One of the big questions in the six state elections set for Aug 12 is whether Najib being in or out of prison is a plus or minus point for Umno and Pakatan Harapan in the unity government, and for Opposition bloc Perikatan Harapan.

What’s the mood among Umno grassroots, especially Bossku’s supporters, now that it’s likely their former president will remain incarcerated during the campaign period in the upcoming elections in Kedah, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor, and Terengganu?

Party insiders tell me that most of them are angry that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi have not done much to expedite Najib’s release. Many in Umno believe his jail sentence is unjustified, harsh and unfair as the judge who ruled in his case said it was not Najib’s right to give the disputed RM42mil to charity (because the money had been wrongly paid by certain people into Najib's account from SRC).

They are fed up with Umno leaders crying, shouting or swearing on stage that they will push for Najib to receive a royal pardon. They want to see tangible results.

At the minimum, the Bossku supporters want some of Najib’s eight remaining court cases, brought when Najib’s nemesis Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was in power, to be dropped. They are grumbling that after eight months of the formation of the unity government, they can’t get Najib released or some of his cases discharged.

These supporters are tired of listening to unfulfilled promises on the judicial fate of Bossku, and they are likely not to go out to vote for Pakatan and Umno. Some have threatened to vote for Perikatan to show their unhappiness.

The Bossku factor in the six state polls is a big issue. That is why Umno president Ahmad Zahid got the video message by Najib’s eldest son, Datuk Mohamad Nizar, aired during the party’s general assembly on June 9.

In the recording, Nizar said Najib has never asked Umno members to attack the unity government: “There are certain parties who claim that my father is angry with the government. This is certainly not true. He has never asked for Umno members to turn their backs on the government.”

Nizar went on to say his father demanded that party members remain loyal to the party and the institution of party president. Nizar and his siblings have since made statements asking Umno and the government to do more to restore justice for their father.

It could cost states like Selangor if Ahmad Zahid can’t convince Bossku supporters to vote for Pakatan and Umno. There are 33 Malay majority seats in the state, and if Pakatan and Umno get less than 20% of the total Malay votes, these seats (and possibly the Selangor government) could fall.

If Najib remains in jail, for Pakatan supporters, it would be status quo.

For Perikatan, it would a chance to use the situation to persuade Umno supporters to support the Opposition coalition, as they know that the Umno grassroots’ support for Najib is higher than that for Umno as whole.

“The thing is, we know that there are sizable numbers of Bossku supporters in Umno who hate Zahid, and they want to punish him because they believe that he is being selfish and is not helping Najib,” a Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia leader told me.

“We are hoping that those who feel that Umno leaders have betrayed Najib will support us.”

How will Umno supporters react if Najib is released before the Aug 12 elections?

It will ignite renewed enthusiasm in the demoralised party, which performed poorly in the 15th General Election (GE15) in November 2022.

Najib supporters pointed out to me the two contrasting fortunes of Umno in the Johor and Melaka state elections and in GE15. They said that during the two state polls and the general elections, the Umno president was Ahmad Zahid. But the results were different: Umno had landslide victories in Johor and Melaka, while it almost got wiped out in GE15.

The difference, they argued, is Bossku. In Johor and Melaka, Umno had Najib leading the campaign even though he was no longer party president, while in GE15, he was incarcerated.

Arguably, with key leaders sacked or suspended, Umno is leaderless. One of the major reasons it did badly in GE15 is a majority of Malaysians – whether Perikatan or Pakatan supporters – were not comfortable with the prospect of Ahmad Zahid as the next prime minister.

Umno needs a leader who can ignite the glory days of the Grand Old Party of Malaysia.

How will Pakatan supporters react to a Najib release? To answer that, we have to ask another question: What do they fear more, Najib released or the prospect of Perikatan (read: PAS) taking over Negri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor?

The Pakatan crowd has seemingly accepted – if reluctantly – Umno and Ahmad Zahid (who they once called kleptocrats) as part of the unity government because 1) they want their coalition to remain in power, and 2) they are afraid their states (Negri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor) will fall to the Opposition.

Interestingly, when push comes to shove – except for those in Pakatan like DAP’s Tony Pua – most Pakatan supporters might close an eye to Najib’s release as they are afraid that 4D gambling outlets, sales of alcohol, and BlackPink concerts will be banned in their states if the Opposition (again, read: PAS) wins.

Those lamenting the poor share market and weak ringgit at the moment might even welcome a release as they look back at the better-performing economy when Najib was in power before GE14, albeit without a global pandemic to contend with.

For Perikatan, Najib in or out of jail will not make a difference. The Opposition coalition too has leaders who claim they have been charged with corruption because of political prosecution – for example, Perikatan chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

In or out of jail, Najib could affect the unity government. If Pakatan and Umno do poorly, especially in Malay majority seats, the Federal Government could become unstable.

Perhaps Bossku should release more TikTok videos to indicate what he wants his supporters in the six states facing elections to do on Aug 12.