PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s position that it should contest 21 of the 28 seats in the coming Melaka polls does not mean there is no room for negotiations, say political analysts.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said Barisan had effectively drawn a “21-seat red line”, making the remaining seven seats the main bargaining space.
“The 21-seat position shows Barisan is setting the terms. The real question now is whether PAS is willing to compromise, whether Bersatu can survive independently and whether Pakatan Harapan chooses cooperation or is preparing for a multi-cornered contest,” he said.
While acknowledging that accepting only seven seats would be a difficult compromise for PAS, he said the party could decide that contesting fewer seats would be worthwhile if it resulted in greater political cooperation with Barisan.
As for Bersatu, he said the party would have to prove it had an independent voter base outside the wider Perikatan Nasional machinery if it chose to go solo.
On Wednesday, Melaka Barisan Nasional chairman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh asked Umno divisions to submit at least three potential candidates for each seat.
Barisan has repeatedly maintained that the 21 seats it won in the 2021 polls will form the basis of any negotiations with prospective partners.
Political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan said Barisan’s 21-seat claim was “not cast in stone”, adding that the party could reduce it to 19 or 20 seats if PAS offered reciprocal political value.
“If, for example, PAS can offer something more interesting, giving a few seats in the four states which they govern, then 21 seats can be reduced to 19 or 20,” he added.
Azmi said PAS could accept seven seats in Melaka if a deal with Barisan opens the way for broader cooperation in the next general election.
He described a solo Bersatu campaign as a “very lonely adventure”, particularly if PAS moved closer towards Barisan while Pakatan refused to cooperate with Bersatu.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said Barisan’s 21-seat position showed it regarded those constituencies as its core territory, narrowing the room for prospective partners.
“Seven winnable seats are politically more valuable than 10 seats that are merely symbolic,” he said, adding that PAS would also have to consider candidate choice, campaign machinery and its role in any post-election arrangement.
Tawfik took a dimmer view of Bersatu’s prospects, saying the party was suffering from severe “political dehydration” and risked losing deposits if it contested alone.
As for Pakatan, he said it had to decide whether to seek a formal understanding with Barisan, pursue a looser non-aggression arrangement or contest independently.
Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) political analyst Dr Abdolreza Alami cautioned that the seven seats should not be viewed as having been accepted by PAS.
“At present, no party has publicly accepted an arrangement limiting itself to those seven seats,” he said.
He added that PAS had nevertheless shown a tendency towards Barisan.
On Thursday, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang said the party remained open to cooperation with Barisan and was prepared to consider using the Barisan logo, although talks have yet to be finalised.
The Election Commission is scheduled to meet on Oct 7 to set the date for the Melaka polls.
