PETALING JAYA: The vote bank of 49 Felda settlements in Negri Sembilan is highly coveted by political parties during the state elections – but breaking into the vault will not be easy, say analysts.
With over 16,000 settlers spanning seven generations, the Felda vote bank is now a big question.
Although it has traditionally been a Barisan Nasional fixed deposit – namely Umno – for many decades, there has been a slight shift in the voting patterns among the third and fourth generations of Felda settlers.
NGO Kami Anak Felda – whose members are settlers and their families – says it is important that Felda votes be given to the coalition that understands the issues faced by the settlers and their families.
Mejar (Ret) Abu Ibon, who heads the NGO in Negri Sembilan, said the state is unique as it has customary (adat) laws, which in turn also affect land issues faced by settlers and their families.
“Recently, there have been too many disputes over adat, encouraged by political parties who do not understand it.
“We want a coalition that can resolve the issues involving housing for the younger generation and land matters affecting Felda settlers’ families, especially for the Felda generation,” said Abu.
As most of those in Felda are Malays, Felda settlers’ problems can be better solved by a strong Malay-based coalition, he added.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the Felda vote bank is extremely important for any party wanting to be the Negri state government.
He pointed out that there are nine state constituencies in Negri containing Felda schemes – namely Pertang, Chennah, Sungai Lui, Palong, Jeram Padang, Serting, Gemas, Gemencheh and Senaling.
“Of the five seats won by Perikatan in the last state election, two were classified as Felda seats (Serting and Gemas), while four Felda seats were retained by Barisan with majorities of less than 700 votes,” Tawfik said.
In 2023, Barisan won Sungai Lui with a majority of 535 votes, Palong (564), Senaling (662) and Jeram Padang (693).
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“Felda has always been regarded as a ‘fixed deposit’ for Umno and Barisan.
“The older generation associated Felda’s land, housing, agricultural assistance and rural development with successive Barisan governments,” Tawfik said.
“Umno’s strong branch network and close relationship with settler organisations reinforced that loyalty.
“Signs of dissatisfaction appeared by 2018, particularly over settler debts, the management of FGV, commodity prices and limited economic opportunities for the second generation.
“The decisive break became visible in 2023, when Perikatan captured the Felda-linked seats of Serting and Gemas.
“They can be kingmakers but they cannot form the government on their own.
“Nine seats are insufficient to reach the 19 seats required for a simple majority.
“Nevertheless, a swing involving four or five marginal Felda seats could determine which coalition crosses that threshold, especially in three or four cornered contests,” Tawfik said.
Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore and a Rajawali Asia Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, said while the voting behaviour of Felda voters does matter in certain constituencies within Negri, “we must be circumspect about inflating its importance in shaping electoral outcomes”.
“This is because Felda voters can swing the votes between Barisan and Pakatan in specific constituencies.
“Both coalitions will need to woo them.
“Courting Felda voters in an electoral campaign illustrates that elections will be won on the ground and not on the Internet in Negri Sembilan.
“The Felda electorate can therefore be aptly described as swing voters and political kingmakers specific to constituencies where they are substantial in number,” he said.
