PETALING JAYA: Gen Z voters are set to be the decisive factor in highly-competitive marginal seats for the upcoming Negri Sembilan and Johor polls if they turn up in big numbers, say analysts.
They said since this group was less “tribal” than their parents, if their turnout exceeded 80%, they could turn the tide to unseat incumbents or force contesting parties to adopt more youth-centric policies.
Analysts further said although Gen Z was once seen as an “unknown quantity” and a “wild card”, results from past elections showed that they were as ideologically divided as older voters.
Political scientist Prof Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said Gen Z voters’ bloc was not “a unitary actor”.
“They are diverse yet may still produce some common patterns.
“With splits and realignment involving Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan, some may turn to Umno or Bersama while others may not vote,” he said.
In the 15th General Election, post-mortem of the results indicated Gen Z Malay voters favoured Perikatan while non-Malay youths supported Pakatan.
Enabled by the Undi18 policy which lowered the voting age to 18 and introduced automatic registration in 2019, Gen Z registered a robust 75.6% voter turnout in the GE15.
“They are significant because their percentage is growing. Their turnout rate may change the outcome in marginal seats,” he said, while predicting a “sizeable” number of Gen Z voters may stick to voting for Perikatan but would not be as high as in 2022.
Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research programmes director Ibrahim Suffian said the youth vote remained theoretically significant but the initial “novelty” and “hope” have waned.
“Post-Undi18, the youth were viewed as a force for progressive change but reality has proven they are as ideologically divided as older generations.
“Many young voters now feel that electoral participation yields few tangible improvements in their quality of life, leading to a decline in the reflexive, issue-driven enthusiasm,” he said.
Ibrahim said Gen Z’s electoral impact was defined by volatility and potential rather than guaranteed influence.
“In Johor and Negri Sembilan, they represent a significant portion of the electorate but their actual power is contingent upon turnout.
“Voting patterns remain largely tied to ethnic background but many remain disillusioned by shifting political alliances and the party-hopping culture.
“If this group turns out at rates exceeding 80%, they possess the leverage to unseat prominent candidates.
“However, their power is often diluted by regional disparities. They are more likely to be decisive in urban or suburban ‘battleground’ seats,” said Ibrahim.
He said Gen Z voting behavior was increasingly transactional and issue-based rather than tied to traditional party loyalty.
“Their voting is often a ‘pick’ based on a mix of peer influence which can be both a source of encouragement and pressure amid fragmented information found online.
“As a result, they are less ‘tribal’ and more prone to protest-voting or abstention,” he said.
Political analyst Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the strength of Gen Z voters remained in their turnout.
“The main issue is whether young people will turn up and the ability of contesting parties to convince them with their manifestos and choice of candidates.
“Issues such as rising cost of living, wage stagnation and lack of employment prospect resonate with young voters regardless of their backgrounds,” said Azmil.
