Analysts: Barisan-Pakatan showdown likely in Johor despite new outfits contesting
JOHOR BARU: The upcoming state election is shaping up to be a crowded affair, with multi-cornered fights expected in many constituencies, but analysts believe the contest will ultimately come down to a battle between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan.
With new political outfits like Gerakan Reset and Parti Bersama Malaysia throwing their hats in the ring, there will be even a larger group entering the election fray, observed political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali.
“Even with a crowded election, it still looks like a Barisan and Pakatan showdown. It remains to be seen how impactful the new parties will be,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Kuala Lumpur.
He said even Perikatan Nasional, which has announced that it will contest all 56 seats in Johor, appears weakened by disagreements between PAS and Bersatu over possible cooperation in the election.
“We might even see PAS and Bersatu fielding candidates against each other in some seats, making the election even more crowded.”
Mazlan also said he believes new parties such as Bersama, led by former PKR lawmakers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, are unlikely to make a significant impact due to their limited grassroots presence.
“They may appeal to middle-class and educated fence-sitters, but voters generally look at a party’s track record, leadership stability, ability to improve the economy and care for people’s welfare.”
Meanwhile, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Md Akbal Abdullah said voter turnout could play a decisive role, with a lower turnout likely benefiting Barisan.
“If turnout is around 60% to 65%, it will work in Barisan’s favour.
“The state election in 2022 recorded a turnout of about 54% due to Covid-19. Barisan ended up winning 40 of the 56 seats contested.”
Md Akbal said state elections and by-elections generally attract fewer voters than general elections, as many outstation voters prefer to wait for a nationwide poll before making the trip home to cast their vote.
He also said a recent controversy involving Pakatan Skudai assemblyman Marina Ibrahim could impact voter turnout.
On May 31, Marina announced that she will not seek re-election and will be leaving active politics.
A letter she purportedly wrote to state DAP chairman Teo Nie Ching declining an offer to contest the Tiram state seat later made the rounds on social media.
The letter stated that she had declined Teo’s offer to contest the seat, as well as an offer of a government-linked company position if she failed to win.
In the last state polls, aside from the big names – Barisan, Pakatan and Perikatan, parties like Pejuang, Warisan, Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Putra had taken part.
According to the Election Commission, Johor has more than 2.72 million registered voters.
Johor will hold its 16th state election following the dissolution of the state assembly on June 1.
