PETALING JAYA: The dissolution of the Johor state assembly may be the spark that could see a series of polls over the coming months.
Melaka and Negri Sembilan may soon follow suit, with the 16th General Election (GE16) coming along too, say experts.
Perlis also remains fluid amid tensions within the Perikatan Nasional coalition there, the experts say.
The state assembly there will convene for three days from today, and all eyes are on whether there will be a surprise announcement.
Universiti Malaya’s Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said several states may also seek to synchronise their elections to reduce costs and allow parties to mobilise resources more efficiently.
Melaka and Negri Sembilan remain the most likely to align their political calendars with Johor, said Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman assistant professor Dr Liew Wui Chern.
This is because Melaka’s state assembly term will end in December. For Negri Sembilan, the current political crisis between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan may trigger an early election.
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Any decision, he said, would still depend on calculations made by both state and federal leaders.
Tawfik noted that relations between PAS and Bersatu in Perlis remain strained, while Liew said the northern state may prefer to wait and observe voter sentiment during the Johor election before deciding whether to seek a fresh mandate or wait until GE16.
The series of state elections are also expected to provide an early indication of which coalitions are most prepared for the next general election.
Johor last went to the polls in March 2022, with Barisan securing a two-third majority in the state assembly. It won 40 of the 56 state seats.
Dr Azmi Hassan, senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said the dissolution could be a sign that Barisan believes it is in a relatively comfortable position heading into an election.
Barisan also prefers an early contest as it currently enjoys an advantage over both Pakatan and Perikatan, who are facing internal problems, he said.
Analysts also predicted polling in Johor to be held in early to mid-July, noting that one of the Election Commission’s (EC) key logistical considerations would be the return of haj pilgrims.
Most of them are scheduled to return by the end of the month, said Azmi.
“The EC won’t use the 60 days (by which elections must be held) to the maximum,” he said, adding that the commission typically leaves itself “two to three weeks to spare”.
Azmi said both coalitions were still dealing with internal issues, adding that Pakatan would likely want to assess the impact of Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) before making broader electoral calculations.
Perikatan is also facing its own challenges, with leaders from its component parties having traded barbs publicly in recent weeks.
While a convincing result in Johor could strengthen calls for wider elections, experts said federal political calculations would remain the decisive factor.
“If Barisan wins big, it will strengthen calls for wider elections,” said International Islamic University Malaysia associate professor Dr Lau Zhe Wei.
Ultimately, though, the timing of GE16 remains in the hands of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
Still, Tawfik expects GE16 to be held by October. Azmi, however, believes Anwar is unlikely to call a general election this year as Pakatan continues to sort out its internal challenges.
For now, Johor appears set to be only the first episode in what could become a much longer election season.
