MetMalaysia warns of intense dry weather conditions soon
PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) says weather conditions are increasingly pointing to the El Nino phenomenon becoming dominant by August.
It said rising sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, weakening easterly winds and the effects of global warming could cause El Nino to develop more intensively.
MetMalaysia said the development of El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are expected to persist until September, could potentially reduce rainfall across most parts of Malaysia.
“This is particularly expected during the south-west monsoon period,” said MetMalaysia in its long-term weather outlook for May to October.
It said the south-west monsoon, which lasts until September, is also expected to result in drier weather conditions.
There is also the potential for severe and prolonged dry spells during this period if El Nino and the positive IOD remain active.
“Average rainfall nationwide is expected to be slightly below normal from June to September.
“Significant rainfall reduction will peak between June and August, in line with the south-west monsoon and El Nino’s influence.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre has also found there is an 82% chance of El Nino emerging between this month and July.
It also forecast a 96% chance of the phenomenon persisting between December this year and February next year.
Experts are urging Malaysians to prepare for months of blistering heat, prolonged dry spells and shrinking water supplies due to the coming El Nino phenomenon.
They say El Nino, expected to start in July, may intensify into an extreme event on par with the 1997/98 and 2015/16 episodes.
Academy of Sciences Malaysia fellow Prof Emeritus Dr Fredolin Tangang said the focus now is on how strong the El Nino phenomenon will be.
He said an “extreme” El Nino episode is categorised when sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean region exceed 2°C.
According to him, El Nino episodes in this category include the events of 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.
“The 1997/98 and 2015/16 events are regarded as the strongest in modern observational record.
“Based on my observations, I believe that the coming El Nino has the potential to evolve into an event comparable to the past two episodes,” said Fredolin, who has researched the phenomenon over three decades.
During the 1997/98 episode, Malaysia experienced a water crisis and recorded its highest temperatures, namely in Chuping, Perlis, at 40.1°C.
The 2015/16 episode meanwhile, brought about a devastating haze.
Fredolin warned of prolonged droughts, heatwaves and increased risk of forest and vegetation fires in both local and neighbouring countries, which are often associated with extreme El Nino episodes.
“We are also expected to face impacts on water resources, declining agricultural yields and adverse effects on public health.
“The question is – are we truly prepared?” he said.
Universiti Malaya’s Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said the weather is expected to be drier by June if El Nino materialises, alongside possible heatwaves and droughts in July.
He said models currently predict that El Nino will strengthen by the year-end, before shifting to neutral by the start of 2027.
“We may have to be on the lookout for coral bleaching events during a strong El Nino.
“There is also the possibility of regional haze if open burning occurs in neighbouring countries,” he said, adding that this may last until October when the north-east monsoon begins.
