However, the think tank said there was still pressure on Barisan Nasional and its unity government partner Pakatan Harapan to prove the strength of their cooperation by delivering a convincing majority, targeted at 18,000 votes by Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad.
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“The by-election is seen as a litmus test for the unity government’s cohesion, Perikatan Nasional’s ability to maintain momentum among young Malay voters, and the effectiveness of individual candidates in swaying local sentiment,” it said in a report released here on Friday (April 25).
The report also highlighted a noticeable shift in campaign tactics with traditional large-scale rallies giving way to a more subtle and tactical approach, with parties opting for direct voter engagement, house-to-house visits, and digital outreach.
“Perikatan has led a more aggressive digital campaign, while both Barisan and Pakatan have largely adopted a defensive stance,” it added.
The centre also said that while local issues such as candidate credibility and pollution dominate, national sentiments have crept into the campaign.
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“Perikatan has urged voters to treat the by-election as a referendum on the Federal Government and Umno’s alliance with DAP, a partnership that continues to stir unease among Malay voters.
“Adding to the dynamic is Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) candidate KS Bawani, who has focused on estate worker welfare and employment, particularly targeting the Indian voter segment.
"Her campaign may draw votes that would otherwise go to Barisan, potentially narrowing the majority,” the report added.
The centre also said that with no clear frontrunner, the by-election remains highly competitive and may offer key insights into Malaysia’s political direction ahead of the next general election.
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In GE15, Barisan’s Ishsam Shahruddin polled 9,088 votes to win by a 2,213-vote majority, defeating Pakatan’s Mohd Nazri Hashim, Perikatan’s Muhammad Noor Farid, Pejuang’s Maziah Salim, and Bawani.
Ishsam passed away at age 59 in February after a heart attack.
Voters will go to the polls on Saturday (April 26) to choose from Barisan’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, Perikatan’s Muhaimin Malek, and Bawani.
