PETALING JAYA: Flood-stricken states may get some respite if the current monsoon surge weakens as forecasted, climatologists say.
Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah from the Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences at Universiti Malaya explained that Malaysia typically experiences only one bad episode of surge each year.
“If the surge weakens as forecasted, we could have some respite until the next surge,” he said.
Azizan highlighted monsoon surges as one of the main drivers of rainy weather, with a strong surge during the northeast monsoon capable of triggering continuous rain that lasts 48 to 72 hours.A strong surge is defined as one with wind speeds exceeding 20 kph, with the current surge reaching speeds of 40 kph, he said.
“This phenomenon usually affects the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand from November to January,” he explained. “After January, however, Sabah and Sarawak will experience more rainy days.”
Dr Fredolin Tangang, a fellow at the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, said cold surges are among the factors contributing to continuous heavy rainfall in Kelantan, Terengganu, northern Peninsular Malaysia, and also southern Thailand.
Another possible factor, he said, was the transition of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from its third to fourth phase, as forecasted by the US Climate Prediction Centre.
“Research findings indicate that the MJO’s presence triggers easterly winds from the western Pacific towards the South China Sea and Peninsular Malaysia, thus bringing more moisture to fuel continuous heavy rainfall over the peninsula,” Fredolin explained.
“The MJO can also exacerbate conditions brought on by cold surges to a point where it can double the amount of rainfall.”
He however cautioned that weather conditions remain highly dynamic and can change rapidly in a short timespan.
