PETALING JAYA: While some parts of the country are still experiencing rain and floods, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) says there will be drier days in February.
This is due to the northeast monsoon forecast to end in March, with El Nino conditions also currently present.
MetMalaysia director-general Muhammad Helmi Abdullah said there are usually fewer thunderstorms and less rain in early February, up until the northeast monsoon ends in March.
He added that the El Nino phenomenon, bringing drier conditions, has been present since the middle of last year.
Muhammad Helmi said a strong El Nino could reduce rainfall and increase temperatures nationwide once the northeast monsoon ends in March.
“This is especially for states in the northern peninsula, and the interior of Perak, Kelantan, Pahang, and Sabah,” he said in a statement to The Star.
The El Nino phenomenon began in the middle of last year and can last up to 18 months.
Muhammad Helmi said the peak effects of El Nino would usually be felt at the end of the northeast monsoon, with conditions possibly stretching until the middle of the year.
“Based on the latest forecasts, the current El Nino is expected to weaken and return to neutral in phases by mid-2024,” he added.
Academy of Sciences Malaysia Fellow Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the Apec Climate Centre (APCC) in Busan, South Korea currently forecasts above normal rainfall for southern Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak throughout the remainder of the northeast monsoon period.
The northeast monsoon began on Nov 11 last year, bringing floods to various states in Malaysia. Other states, including Sabah, were expected to experience normal rainfall for the rest of the northeast monsoon period.
“Higher than normal rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak is also consistent with the typical impact of El Nino, which is in the process of phasing out and expected to end by April or May,” he said when contacted.
Prof Fredolin said the entire region is expected to experience warmer temperatures by at least a degree due to El Nino.
“While the forecast does not really indicate a major shift in weather patterns, there is still a likelihood of extreme weather conditions such as droughts and heatwaves,” he said, adding that this happened when the El Nino decline last occurred.
Prof Fredolin said the current El Nino had reached its peak at the end of last year, with conditions expected to return to normal by April or May.
“The public are advised to watch out for weather forecasts issued by MetMalaysia,” he said.
