While annual global climate talks are peppered with announcements of voluntary sectoral initiatives and pledges, signed onto by governments with great fanfare and media attention, the jury’s still out as to whether these pledges translate into national action.
In a report released on April 8, global climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics looked at four such COP pledges covering coal, renewables, energy efficiency and methane, and their impact across eight Asian countries: Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, selected for both their heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and their participation in the pledges.
The initiatives are:
> The Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement (COP26, 2021)
> The Energy Transition Council (COP26)
> The Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency (signed at COP28 in Dubai)
> The Global Methane Pledge (COP26)
The team also included some analysis on the two Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), underway in Indonesia and Vietnam.
“One issue we found with the pledges is their voluntary nature, and lack of enforceability, which limits their impact,” said climate and energy economist at Climate Analytics Dr Nandini Das. “Governments can make bold statements in signing up to these pledges at a COP, without having to come up with concrete action.”
“While these pledges provide a foundation for progress, their content has been, at best, loosely integrated into NDCs and national policies so far,” said lead author and climate and energy policy analyst Thomas Houlie. “This year’s new round of NDCs is an opportunity for governments to show whether these voluntary pledges will actually drive ambition and action, or be remembered as political and diplomatic posturing.”
Findings
> The Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency (signed at COP28 in Dubai), aims to triple renewable energy deployment by 2030, the report found that overall, the deployment of renewables was insufficient.
While Japan and Vietnam had made some (short-lived, in the case of Vietnam) gains, these were hindered by regulatory and technical challenges. Grid modernisation, a key enabler for renewable integration, remains a bottleneck in many countries.
> Coal dependency persists despite the commitments to coal reduction through multiple pledges. Coal capacity has increased in several pledge-signatory countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, for example, have expanded coal use, with new plants still being commissioned.
Japan and South Korea remain heavily dependent on imported coal. Also of concern is the lack of concrete coal plant retirement plans. Two non-signatories of the Coal to Clean power statement saw a relative decline in coal dependency.
In Indonesia, new coal projects continue to receive financing and approvals, which can be linked with its non-endorsement of this pledge’s clause on halting the issuance of permits and the construction of new coal plants.
Vietnam’s coal phase-out hinges on unclear prospects of reconversion. Meanwhile, Malaysia and Thailand, non-signatories of the Global Coal to Clean Power Statement, have seen a relative decline in coal dependency. For Singapore, coal-related pledges are a low-hanging fruit, as the fuel accounts for less than 1% of its energy supply.
> Energy efficiency, the “first fuel”, is not being leveraged, despite being one of the most cost-effective ways to cut emissions. Only Japan has achieved the 4% annual energy intensity reduction required to meet international targets, but only in the last data year and the question is whether this is due to policies or external factors, like economic conjuncture or weather.
> Methane emission reductions are uneven. The Global Methane Pledge commits signatories to a 30% reduction by 2030, but progress has been inconsistent. Japan and Vietnam have taken proactive steps, with the government integrating methane reductions into its national climate policies. In contrast, the Philippines have seen increases, largely due to expanded coal mining and a rise in waste methane output.
> Fossil gas expansion threatens climate goals: many countries are expanding fossil gas infrastructure as a perceived transition fuel in spite of the evidence. This undermines climate commitments. Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam are particularly at risk of long-term fossil fuel lock-in, with substantial LNG import projects underway. LNG risks diverting investment away from sustainable energy solutions and creating stranded assets.
The eight focus countries reviewed in this report are all in a position to contribute to closing the gap between their NDC commitments and Paris Agreement targets. Successful implementation of their energy sector pledges can accelerate the transition to clean energy sources and avoid locking-in more fossil fuels in their energy systems.
Malaysia remains dependent on fossil fuels, particularly fossil gas. Renewable energy growth is still slow, and investors’ interest is limited, as witnessed by the country having the lowest solar and wind pipeline across focus countries, except for Singapore.
The government is putting initiatives in place to attract green investment and improve grid infrastructure, which could start to align progress with the Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency if properly implemented.
