KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil prices are expected to remain above RM4,700 per metric ton in October and through the rest of the year, underpinned by weather uncertainties and favourable energy markets, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said on Tuesday.
The key downside risks are a decline in energy prices and a further build-up of stock, particularly as palm oil production typically reaches its seasonal peak in September or October, MPOC said in a statement.
Malaysian exports are projected to remain stable at around 16 million tons in 2027, reflecting the country's importantrole in supplying palm oil to global consumers, MPOC added.
"The current high stock level is therefore likely to be temporary," it said, adding that production and stock levels in both Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to ease in the coming months.
Inventories hit an eight-month high in August as production climbed to its highest level since December and exports declined, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed early this month.
MPOC said that dry weather associated with El Niño has become more pronounced across Malaysia and Indonesia since early August, raising concerns about its potential impact on palm oil production in six to nine months.
"Rainfall in Indonesia was around 20% below average in July and 60% below average in August, while Malaysia also experienced drier conditions, with rainfall around 30% below average in August," it said.
On energy markets, MPOC said biofuel blending margins further improved following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline facilities and shipping interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. - Reuters
