KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) foresees Malaysia's palm oil exports remaining stable at around 16 million tonnes in 2027, with the country expected to play an increasingly important role in supplying palm oil to global consumers.
Citing independent global market analyses and forecasts by Oil World, MPOC said Indonesia’s palm oil production is forecast to decline by 1.9 million tonnes in 2027, while Malaysia’s production is forecast to fall by 0.7 million tonnes.
"Indonesia’s exports are also projected to decline by almost three million tonnes in 2027, reflecting firmer domestic demand from biodiesel blending and a weaker production outlook.
"As a result, Malaysia is expected to become an increasingly important source of palm oil for global consumers, while the country's current high stock level is likely to be temporary,” it said in a statement today.
MPOC noted that Malaysia's palm oil production rose marginally by 1.4 per cent month-on-month to 1.81 million tonnes in August 2026, supported by higher fresh fruit bunch collection and an improvement in the oil extraction rate from July.
Nonetheless, output remained below the level recorded a year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year decline since March 2026, while cumulative palm oil exports from January to August 2026 rose by 806,000 tonnes to 10.4 million tonnes.
However, exports fell 7.5 per cent month-on-month in August to 1.29 million tonnes, weighed by weaker shipments to South Asia and the Middle East.
Despite the monthly decline, MPOC said full-year exports are projected to reach 16.0 million tonnes, 5.2 per cent higher than the volume recorded in 2025.
The combination of higher production and weaker exports lifted palm oil stocks to 2.82 million tonnes in August.
Looking ahead, it said crude palm oil prices are expected to remain firm above RM4,700 per tonne in October and likely throughout the rest of the year, underpinned by weather uncertainty and favourable energy markets.
"The main downside risks are an easing in energy prices and further stock accumulation, as palm oil production typically reaches its seasonal peak in September or October,” it added. - Bernama
