PETALING JAYA: Malaysian ports’ container volume is likely to continue growing at a low single-digit rate this year, with ports being heavily invested in the intra-Asia trade routes.
The routes are less affected by the surges in tariff to the United States, partially benefitting from the potential trade diversion amid US-China trade tensions, according to Kenanga Research.
In the long run, the research house said the biggest beneficiary could be Bintulu Port Holdings Bhd
due to its largest exposure to China as its biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market.
“Nevertheless, PETRONAS MLNG complex is currently running at maximum capacity which we expect to persist for a few years until PETRONAS finalises its plan to expand (no timeline given at the moment),” it said.
Kenanga Research estimates Malaysian ports’ container volume to grow by 4% this year.
“We believe that Malaysia will benefit from the trade diversion as the global trade reposition itself around the highly volatile US tariff barriers.”
Since March 2026, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has maintained its projection for 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth at 1.9% and 2027 growth at 2.6%.
It cites a surge in artificial intelligence-related products, adaptations in supply chains (restructuring logistics, sourcing, and technology to boost resilience against volatility) and the avoidance of tit-for-tat retaliation on tariffs to remain as the key growth drivers.
However, Kenanga Research said this baseline forecast is under pressure from the conflict in the Middle East and high energy prices – if US-Iran peace deal discussion is prolonged – with potential spillovers for food security and cost pressures on consumers and businesses.
Note that the high energy price scenario would see world merchandise trade volume growth slowing to 1.4% from 1.9%, shaving 0.5 percentage points off.
The Brent crude oil prices has been experiencing a sharp reversal since early-June 2026 following the US-Iran peace deal discussion.
While it has successfully triggered a steep drop in global oil prices, the process is considered highly volatile due to disputes and conflicting terms between Washington and Tehran.
Thus, there are no changes in the global merchandise trade volume growth estimate by WTO for now, pending a clearer and longer-lasting peace deal and recovery from Middle East conflicts.
“The shipping diversion from the Red Sea continues to weigh down on global trade, but shippers managed to increase and sustain massive trade volume around the Cape of Good Hope by overhauling fleet logistics, restructuring fuel supply networks, and passing elevated costs directly onto the supply chain.
“Driven by intensifying security crises in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, maritime carriers transformed what was a temporary detour into a permanent, highly structured trade corridor,” said the research house.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research expects the domestic logistic sector growth to remain steady in 2026.
It said local fuel prices trend have minimal impact on the sector.
“Logistics players are unaffected by the rising diesel price (at time of writing diesel pump price is at RM4.37 per litre) as logistics players are eligible to purchase diesel at a fixed price of RM2.15 per litre under Malaysia’s targeted diesel subsidy for logistics using subsidy fleet card.
On the contrary, seaport operators can only use unsubsidised diesel (largely for their tugboats), but they managed the use of unsubsidised diesel, it added.
