HONG KONG: Asia-Pacific’s main lenders will offer diverging paths navigating the fallout of the Iran war, with HSBC Holdings Plc and Westpac Banking Corp more exposed than Singaporean peers.
HSBC’s exposure to the Middle East is about 4% of revenue and pre-tax.
The longer-term geopolitical risk, which could hit both free income and financing demand, is less clear.
Still, steady Hong Kong loan growth could buoy the lender amid such risks, Bloomberg Intelligence said.
Its peer Standard Chartered Plc posted record first-quarter earnings last Thursday, as record wealth inflows offset precautionary charges linked to Middle East tensions.
In Australian banks, Westpac is due as market expectations for interest rate hikes climb, driven by rising fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and heightened inflation expectations, UBS said.
National Australia Bank Ltd yesterday missed first-half profit estimates on higher software costs and the deteriorating economy.
Singaporean lenders Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB) conversely could benefit from geopolitical turmoil, leveraging the nation’s reputation for careful regulation, strong currency and AAA credit rating to draw wealth-management business, BI said.
Last week, DBS Group Holdings Ltd posted a strong start to the year, recording higher wealth management fees in the first quarter.
In the short term, OCBC and UOB are set to post a sequential rebound in performance, but continue to face net interest margin pressure, Morgan Stanley said. — Bloomberg
