PETALING JAYA: The war in the Middle East is driving a shift in global energy investment, as capital increasingly flows toward more stable and diversified regions, with Malaysia regarded as a “safe haven” in South-East Asia.
MBSB Research said the oil and gas sector is expected to see a meaningful increase in global exploration activity this year, with total spending estimated at approximately US$55bil.
“Of this, close to US$30bil is expected to be allocated toward regions such as West Africa, South America, Asia, and North America, highlighting a clear pivot toward geographic diversification,” it said.
The research house said the shift has challenged long-standing assumptions about the Gulf as a dependable hub for energy production and investment.
It said oil majors, including Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, BP plc and TotalEnergies SE, are increasing upstream spending and reallocating capital across the United States, South America, West Africa and emerging frontier basins.
A similar trend is also seen among national oil companies and state-owned enterprises, which are raising capital expenditure and diversifying upstream portfolios to strengthen resilience amid geopolitical disruptions, MBSB Research noted.
According to the research house, this reflects a broader structural shift as governments move to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern supply and accelerate investments in both domestic and international upstream assets.
Additionally, diversification efforts are extending toward near-term supply regions, alongside long-cycle exploration assets, as energy security concerns persist.
Capital is also increasingly being directed toward regions capable of delivering immediate or near-term production, aimed at offsetting potential supply disruptions.
“This is particularly relevant in the context of an estimated 13 million barrels per day of supply at risk from the Middle East,” it said.
MBSB Research said Asia and North America have emerged as key beneficiaries of this trend. Moreover, South-East Asia is also gaining traction as an attractive investment destination, with countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia seeing increased upstream interest.
“Recent offshore discoveries by Murphy Oil Corp in Vietnam, alongside Malaysia’s positioning as a relatively stable and investment-friendly market, have reinforced the region’s strategic importance,” it said.
MBSB Research added that Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s Malaysia Bid Round 2026 represents a strategic effort to position Malaysia as a preferred “safe haven” investment destination.
