HANOI: Sharp swings in interbank lending rates have rattled Vietnam’s money market in recent weeks, but experts say deposit and lending rates for businesses and households are likely to remain broadly stable this year.
Early last month, the Vietnamese money market experienced rare volatility as Vietnamese dong lending rates on the interbank market surged across all short-term tenors, peaking at 16.39% per year for overnight loans on Feb 3.
The spike reflected a sharp rise in short-term capital demand among credit institutions.
However, after just over three weeks, by Feb 26, rates had cooled to 2.83% per year for overnight loans.
Rates for one-week, two-week and one-month terms stood at 5.62%, 6.36% and 7.31% per year, respectively.
On March 2, the overnight rate rose again to 11.1% per year, up 6.3 percentage points from the previous session.
The one-week rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 2% per year, the two-week rate climbed by 2.25 percentage points to 9.25% and the one-month rate rose by 0.6 percentage points to 7.8% per year.
Tran Ngoc Bau, chief executive of financial data company WiGroup, forecast that interbank rates may continue to see significant volatility this year.
According to Bau, the size and structure of the banking system’s balance sheet have changed markedly compared with four to five years ago, making traditional regulatory tools less effective.
In the short and medium term, without sufficiently strong structural adjustments, the market may still experience sudden fluctuations. He believes it could take years to fully address these volatilities.
Despite the potential turbulence in interbank rates, Bau predicted that deposit and lending rates will stabilise around current levels and may edge up slightly for some loans as credit room is tighter this year.
Interest rates are unlikely to surge dramatically or fall back to the lows seen in the 2024-25 period, he said, adding that interbank rates in Vietnam do not serve as a direct benchmark for deposit and lending rates.
Analysts at KBSV Securities believe capital imbalances in the banking system will persist through the first quarter. — Viet Nam News/ANN
