BANGKOK: Thailand's exports surged in January, data showed on Monday, and the commerce ministry expects them to increase in coming months even as the baht's strength remains a concern and there is uncertainty about U.S. tariffs.
Customs-cleared exports, a key economic driver, surged 24.4% in January from a year earlier, the fastest pace in four years and well above a forecast rise of 9.35% in a Reuters poll. Imports rose 29.4%, leading to a wider-than-expected trade deficit of $3.3 billion in January.
Exports were driven by the electronics cycle and AI-related demand and those trends should continue, said Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
Shipments to the U.S., Thailand's largest market, surged 43.1% in January from a year earlier, while shipments to China jumped 35.1%. Nantapong said the strength was not due to transshipment.
U.S. President Donald Trump has set tariffs at 15% after the Supreme Court struck down his tariff regime, below the 19% rate that was being levied on Thailand. Nantapong said trade talks would continue, and noted competitors with previously higher tariffs will also have the lower rate.
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the equal tariff rate should see exports accelerate in the first half and attract investment flows, supporting growth.
Whether GDP can grow 3% this year remains uncertain, and Thailand must continue trade negotiations and expand free-trade agreements, Ekniti said.
The baht's strength is a major concern, and improving tourism and rising exports are likely to see it strengthen further, Nantapong said. The currency has gained 1.5% against the dollar this year after a 9% rise in 2025.
The ministry kept its forecast range for exports this year of between a fall of 3.1% to a rise of 1.1%, after a 12.9% rise last year, but Nantapong said it will be reviewed. - Reuters
