KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd expects Malayan Banking Bhd
’s (Maybank) core net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q 2025) to rise 11.9 per cent year-on-year, driven by a more favourable outlook for non-interest income (NOII).
At the same time, the sequential net-interest margin (NIM) recovery may be better than expected, it said in a research note today.
The investment bank said the marked improvement in domestic system liquidity in 4Q 2025 -- driven by increased foreign direct inflows, portfolio inflows into bonds/sukuks, and robust corporate current account savings account (CASA) growth -- indicates a shift from neutral to a more supportive liquidity environment.
"This turn in liquidity conditions should reinforce tailwinds for Maybank, given its relatively higher exposure to regional flows.
"In line with this, stronger foreign currency (FX) conversion and hedging activity (evidenced by elevated FX spot and swap turnover) point to firmer flow income, while increased foreign buying of Malaysian Government Bonds could bolster Maybank’s realised investment gains,” it said.
Maybank is scheduled to release its 4Q 2025 results this Thursday.
CIMB Securities added that the combination of a stronger ringgit and improved domestic liquidity has alleviated domestic funding cost pressures.
Collectively, it said these developments are positive for Maybank’s NIM, which expects to expand by circa four to five basis points quarter-on-quarter in 4Q 2025 to 2.06 per cent. However, on a full-year basis, FY25 NIM may moderate slightly to 2.03 per cent.
Meanwhile, the investment bank has lifted its FY25/26/27 earnings forecasts for Maybank by 2.6 per cent, 6.9 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively, as it pencils in 2.6-3.4 per cent NOII growth arising from increased contribution from global markets income (FX, derivatives, and investment gains) and a lower net credit charge (NCC).
CIMB Securities has reiterated its "buy” rating on Maybank, with a higher target price (TP) of RM13.30.
It said the higher TP also reflects the improved earnings visibility in Maybank’s core operations, with a resilient NIM supported by easing funding cost pressure and NCC sustained at a lower 19 basis points on disciplined asset quality management.
Furthermore, it said technology is expected to be a new structural growth enabler for Maybank, with the RM10 billion ROAR30 investment programme anticipated to enhance cost discipline and operational efficiency through cloud-native architecture and a next-generation workforce.
"Coupled with a dividend yield of 5.6 per cent, total returns for Maybank stand at 11.6 per cent, justifying our ‘buy’ rating on the stock,” it added. - Bernama
