Inflation
THIS holiday-shortened week will see a limited slate of economic data, with focus on the release of January’s consumer price index (CPI) and external trade figures.
Bloomberg estimates January CPI to be at 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research projects a slightly higher 1.7% y-o-y, compared with 1.6% in December 2025.
The inflation rate is projected to reach 2% by the end of the quarter, according to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
For trade data, UOB estimates that exports will expand 14% y-o-y from 10.4% in December, while imports are projected to grow 10% y-o-y from 12.0% in December.
The trade balance is expected to record a surplus of RM8.9bil, narrowing from the RM19.3bil surplus in December.
Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia will be closed for the Chinese New Year public holiday tomorrow and Feb 18.
The stock exchange operator and its subsidiaries will resume operations on Feb 19.
Interest rate decision
BANK Indonesia (BI), the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are scheduled to announce their monetary policy decisions this week.
According to a Bloomberg survey, the majority of the seven economists polled expect BI to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% in February, while one economist is forecasting a 25 basis-point cut to 4.5%.
Meanwhile, a separate Bloomberg poll shows that all three analysts unanimously expect the BSP to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%.
UOB expects the RBNZ to hold rates steady at the February meeting.
It noted that the central bank has already delivered substantial monetary easing and sees the November 2025 rate cut as the final move in the current easing cycle.
Nevertheless, it does not rule out further action should additional support be required to underpin demand.
GDP data
JAPAN and Thailand will unveil their fourth quarter of financial year 2025 (4Q25) gross domestic product (GDP) figures this week, offering a fresh read on regional growth momentum.
ING expects Japan’s economy to stage a modest rebound in 4Q25, forecasting 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.6% contraction in 3Q25.
Bloomberg estimates Japan’s 4Q25 GDP to expand 0.4% q-o-q on a seasonally adjusted basis, equivalent to a 1.6% annualised rate, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction and a 2.3% annualised decline in 3Q25.
For the full year, UOB expects growth of 1.4% in 2025, compared with a 0.2% contraction in 2024. For Thailand, Bloomberg estimates 4Q25 GDP growth at 1.4% y-o-y, while UOB projects a softer 0.8%, down from 1.2% in 3Q. For full-year 2025, Bloomberg forecasts growth of 2.1% and UOB expects 2%, easing from 2.5% in 2024.
