KUALA LUMPUR: CGS International (CGSI) Research has revised its forecast for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 higher to 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.2%, driven by the GDP growth momentum in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25).
Citing the Statistics Department’s advance estimates released on Oct 17, it said the country’s GDP grew 5.2% y-o-y in 3Q25 (2Q25: 4.4%) due to improvements across all sectors, especially mining and electrical and electronics sectors.
“Given the surprise, we believe strong exports may sustain a bit more before tariffs kick in, and the domestic economy appears more resilient,” it said yesterday.
CGSI Research said the upbeat 3Q25 GDP performance warranted a revision due to statistical reasons as the country seems to be faring well in manoeuvring global economic challenges. The finalised 3Q25 GDP data is scheduled for release on Nov 14.
“For 2026, we think the momentum will continue and we retain our GDP growth forecast of 4.6%,” it said.
IPP Financial Advisers Malaysia has also upgraded its 2025 real GDP growth forecast for Malaysia to 4.8% from 4.5%, driven by stronger-than-expected 3Q data which signals accelerating domestic demand and export momentum.
Country economist Mohd Sedek Jantan said that based on a Bayesian vector autoregression model using high-frequency indicators, the revision showed a 0.3 percentage-point boost from mining recovery and stronger exports. — Bernama
