HANOI: Top robusta grower Vietnam's coffee output is likely to remain steady in the current 2026/27 season as stronger production from younger, replanted trees offsets losses caused by unfavourable weather earlier this year, industry participants said.
The relief for global markets could be relatively short lived however as this year's El Niño weather pattern, which some meteorologists say is the strongest on record, is expected to heavily impact next season's crop.
Vietnam produces about 40 per cent of the world's robusta coffee beans, typically used in instant coffee blends.
Weather conditions have varied this year across Vietnam's main coffee-growing region, the Central Highlands, with weaker yields in some areas offset by stronger production elsewhere.
"Output this crop season will broadly be in line with the previous crop," said Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, a coffee industry association in Vietnam's coffee-growing heartland of Dak Lak province.
"Newer trees in some growing areas are producing higher yields and helping offset losses," he added.
A coffee trader based in Dak Lak province also estimated output would be broadly unchanged, saying excessive rain and pest outbreaks earlier this year had hurt crops in some areas but had not affected the Central Highlands uniformly.
The assessment is somewhat more cautious than a May forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, which sees Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee output up 2.5 per cent from the previous season at 32.5 million 60-kg (132-pound) bags, including a three per cent increase in robusta output to 31.4 million bags.
"In 2026/27, replanted or renewed coffee areas will enter their stable harvest phase with high-yield production potential," the USDA said.
The agency added that strong coffee prices in 2024/25 had encouraged an expansion of coffee acreage, with large private firms increasing their operations.
El Niño risk
However, attention is turning to the 2027/28 crop, with industry participants growing increasingly concerned due to the El Niño, but cautioning it is too early to quantify the impact.
The El Niño climate phenomenon is a cyclical warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean waters off South America and typically causes hot, dry weather and drought in South-East Asia. On October 9, Japanese meteorologists said the change in water temperatures was the highest since records began in 1949.
"El Niño is expected to be very severe and could hit output in the 2027/28 crop," Minh said. "Irrigation water supplies are expected to fall short."
Farmers in coffee-growing areas expressed similar concerns.
"I experienced the same thing a decade ago, when El Niño hurt both output and prices," said Tran Thi Mai, a farmer in the Central Highlands' Gia Lai province with a 2-hectare plantation.
"Water shortages and drought conditions could start affecting irrigation as early as February. Next crop output will very likely be smaller," she added. - Reuters
