Will US defence strategy architect Colby pave the way for Hegseth’s China visit?


The Pentagon is planning to send a high-level delegation to Beijing within weeks to lay the groundwork for a potential visit by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, the South China Morning Post has learned.

Sources said the delegation was expected to be led by Elbridge Colby, defence undersecretary for policy and a key architect of the 2026 National Defence Strategy.

According to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to comment publicly, the trip would be aimed at finalising arrangements for a Hegseth visit, among other things. However, they did not offer a timeline for when that might happen.

The potential Pentagon delegation would follow US President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to Beijing last week.

Chinese experts have previously noted that Beijing would view Trump’s decision on US arms sales to Taiwan as a key indicator of the state of bilateral relations, and of his commitment to the “constructive strategic stability” framework raised during last week’s summit with President Xi Jinping.

A Financial Times report on Thursday quoted sources as saying that Beijing would not approve Colby’s visit until Trump decided on how to proceed with a pending US14 billion arms package for Taiwan.

Asked to comment on the matter during Thursday’s briefing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman declined to say whether the proposed visits were linked to US arms sales to Taiwan, but reiterated Beijing’s “consistent” opposition to any arms sales to Taiwan.

Hegseth was part of the entourage for Trump’s much-anticipated visit to Beijing, making him the first American defence chief to accompany a sitting president on a state visit to China since relations were normalised in the late 1970s.

Hegseth’s inclusion meant he was also the first US defence chief to visit China in nearly eight years, marking his first trip to the country since assuming the role last year.

The US military delegation involved in the expected discussions was likely to be led at the “deputy secretary level”, one source said, noting that this would mark a significant step up from previous working-level engagements and signal “an effort to engage on an increasingly strategic footing”.

In December, Alvaro Smith, a deputy assistant secretary of defence at the Pentagon, met Major General Ye Jiang, deputy director of the Central Military Commission (CMC) Office for International Military Cooperation, for the 19th annual US-China Defence Policy Coordination Talks.

“The higher-level engagement could be a very good chance for the Pentagon to take a closer look at their Chinese counterpart’s line-up [so they can] have a better understanding of who is now in charge of what and who might be up-and-coming after the sweeping leadership change in the CMC,” the source said.

The military is a major target of President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, which has seen several top Chinese generals placed under investigation in recent years, including former CMC vice-chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong.

Also investigated for corruption were former CMC members Liu Zhenli, who was chief of the Joint Staff Department, and Miao Hua, who headed its political work department.

Their downfall marked an unprecedented near-total wipeout of the CMC formed after the 20th party congress in late 2022, leaving General Zhang Shengmin as the only uniformed official on the commission.

Military relations between China and the US have been slowly recovering after Beijing suspended dialogue for more than a year following the House of Representatives’ then-speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping told Trump during their sit-down last week that the two countries should “make better use of communication channels in the political and diplomatic and military-to-military fields”, according to an official Chinese readout.

On Monday, China’s Ministry of National Defence said stable military relations were a shared interest, signalling that Beijing was willing to “manage differences, build trust, and dispel doubts”.

This would “promote the steady and long-term development of a stable and positive China-US [military-to-military] relationship along the right track, which would play a positive role in fostering a bright future for China-US bilateral ties and safeguarding world peace and stability”, spokesman Senior Colonel Jiang Bin said.

The Pentagon delegation’s visit to China would mark a significant step towards deepening high-level military engagement after years of heightened bilateral tensions, including over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunified, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but Washington opposes any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to providing it with weapons.

Hegseth was seen briefly interacting with his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun at a state banquet during Trump’s visit last week. The pair had met once before, on the sidelines of the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus in Malaysia last October. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

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