KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama): Asean's success in addressing issues in the South China Sea over the coming years will depend on its ability to finalise an effective binding code of conduct with China, maintain internal unity, and prevent the escalation of conflict through practical maritime cooperation.
Crisis and threat analyst Peter Nicoll said ASEAN’s priorities should focus on managing risks and preserving ASEAN centrality, rather than attempting to resolve long-standing territorial disputes.
"ASEAN centrality is critical in ensuring that ASEAN keeps the leadership role in negotiations, rather than becoming marginalised by bilateral United States (US)-China competition.
"ASEAN also needs to establish guardrails implementing economic mechanisms that increase the cost of coercive behaviour, thereby reducing the frequency of severe incidents in that disputed water,” he said when speaking on the topic of ASEAN’s South China Sea Plan on Bernama TV’s Bernama World programme on Monday.
Nicoll said the South China Sea is a critical global trade artery with about one-third of global shipping passing through annually.
The area also has immense oil and natural gas reserves, as well as rich fishing grounds.
For these reasons, the South China Sea is vital for regional economic stability, Nicoll said.
"It is a strategic point. It is a vital trade route where over 60 per cent of global goods pass through, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans, making it indispensable for the economies of China, Japan, and South Korea,” he said.
Nicoll warned that rising tensions in the South China Sea could affect marine insurance costs, resulting in higher commodity prices.
He said fishing activities, which are an important food source for many countries in the region, could also be disrupted, while oil and gas exploration and production may be adversely affected, potentially fuelling inflation across the region.
Nicoll added that ASEAN member states must avoid pressure from both the US and China to align with either side to effectively manage South China Sea issues. -- BERNAMA
