Despite its heavy reliance on oil and gas imports, China’s “national strength” insulates its energy security from short-term geopolitical shocks, a prominent petroleum geologist said.
Jin Zhijun, dean of the Institute of Energy at Peking University, said that China – as a large country – could ensure its energy security amid a volatile international energy trading landscape, with multiple contingency plans in place.
They included tapping more domestic resources by increasing oil and gas exploration, pushing ahead with green energy transition, and expanding international collaboration to ensure the smooth flow of global oil shipments, said Jin, also a National People’s Congress (NPC) deputy and an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
His comment came as the conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring and disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for global crude oil flows. US President Donald Trump signalled on Monday that the Iran war, which began with strikes by the United States and Israel on February 28, could end soon. However, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Tuesday it would “determine the end of the war”.
China’s reliance on foreign oil and gas is widely seen as a main weakness undermining the nation’s energy security. According to government data, imports account for more than 70 per cent of the oil and 40 per cent of the natural gas China consumes.
“Of course, the lower the degree of external dependence, the better,” Jin said on the sidelines of the “two sessions” – the annual meetings of the NPC, China’s top legislature, as well as its top political advisory body – in Beijing on Sunday. “However, even if it gets a bit higher, it does not necessarily mean insecurity. The key lies in our comprehensive national strength.
“I believe that internationally, we are able to safely obtain crude oil and ensure it is securely transported to China.”
He said necessary measures might include naval escorts.
Ensuring self-sufficiency in meeting core demands for oil and gas has been listed as one of Beijing’s policy targets for the next five years, according to a draft of China’s 15th five-year plan released last week. That includes ramping up domestic fossil fuel production and expanding strategic reserves.
The draft plan set an annual oil output target of 200 million tonnes (220.5 million short tons), a level the country surpassed last year.
It includes major oil and gas exploration and storage projects that will span northern China’s Ordos Basin, the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in the west, and Bohai Bay in the northeast.
China had “significant potential” in domestic oil and gas exploration and development in the next five years, Jin said.
That included expanding the production and enhancing recovery rates of existing oilfields, he said, as well as further tapping offshore oil reserves, natural gas reserves in the Tarim and Sichuan basins and shale oil reserves. China was intensifying technological and equipment development efforts in those areas, Jin said.
Its shale oil production exceeded 8 million tonnes last year (8.8 million short tons) and was expected to reach 10 million to 15 million tonnes (11 million to 16.5 million short tons) by 2030, he said.
A crucial step to ensuring energy security in the next five years would be maintaining sustained, high-intensity investment in the sector, Jin said.
In addition to securing traditional energy output, China has pledged to continue its shift to clean energy and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels as it pushes to achieve its “dual carbon” goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
But Jin said the roles of fossil fuels and new energy in China’s energy landscape would not change substantially in the next five years, with fossil fuels remaining the mainstay.
Coal consumption increased by 0.1 per cent last year, accounting for 51.4 per cent of total energy consumption, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from 2024, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Electricity consumption saw the fastest growth at 5.0 per cent, followed by crude oil and natural gas, with increases of 3.6 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively. The share of clean energy sources – including natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar power – in total energy consumption reached 30.4 per cent, up by 1.8 percentage points.
“We must emphasise green development and new productive forces, but there is a fundamental bottom line: energy security cannot be compromised,” he said.
China’s crude oil import volume increased by 15.8 per cent year on year in the first two months this year. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
