Opposition critics have accused Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te of stoking fear on the island with his suggestion that Beijing could be preparing to take Taiwan by force by 2027.
They also said that Lai’s attempt to justify a massive increase in defence spending was nudging Taiwan towards a wartime footing without consensus or clarity.
The controversy erupted after Lai told a press conference on Wednesday that Beijing was pursuing a goal to “complete unification with Taiwan by force by 2027”, a line later amended on his official platforms to specify preparation for such an option rather than a scheduled assault.
Karen Kuo, a spokeswoman for Lai’s office, insisted 2027 was not a “confirmed invasion date” but a capability benchmark cited in US congressional and think-tank assessments. Still, the political blast radius was immediate.
The office later blamed the media for misunderstanding.
Opposition Taiwan People’s Party spokeswoman Chang Tung said Lai’s wording was “shocking and disruptive”, triggering unnecessary anxiety – and the media was not to blame.
“It was not the press that erred – it was the president,” she said, warning that careless talk of the risk of war could unsettle markets, shake international confidence and fuel public panic.
Legislator Wang Hung-wei of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) accused Lai of “publicly spreading misinformation” and turning the island’s security into “a political instrument”.
She said online discussions had already spiralled into talk of selling property, moving children abroad and preparing emergency kits.
“If the president truly believes war may come in 2027, where are the evacuation plans? Where is foreign-capital protection? Where is mobilisation readiness?” Wang said. “None has been presented.”
Former Taiwanese leader Ma Ying-jeou said Lai’s framing was “tantamount to declaring Taiwan as being in a quasi-war state”.
Ma argued that Lai’s remark had deepened public panic and divided society into “democratic Taiwan” versus “Chinese Taiwan”, while abandoning channels for cross-strait dialogue.
New Taipei City mayor Hou Yu-ih, a moderate voice within the opposition, said a leader must offer resilience, not countdowns.
“People want reassurance – not a stopwatch to conflict,” he said.
Alongside the 2027 remark, Lai confirmed in the news conference plans to introduce a US$40 billion (NT$1.25 trillion) special defence budget over the next eight years – amounting to roughly NT$156.2 billion annually.
Lai revealed the plan in an opinion piece published by The Washington Post earlier on Wednesday. In that article, Lai also wrote that the island would increase its military spending to more than 3 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026 and to 5 per cent by 2030.
Combined with the NT$950 billion record defence budget proposed for 2026, Taiwan’s defence spending next year could total around NT$1.106 trillion, or about 34 per cent of all government expenditure.
That degree of spending – unprecedented in peacetime – would push defence expenditure near levels normally seen only during active conflict or near-mobilisation, lawmakers said.
KMT legislator Lo Chih-chiang warned that Taiwan might be “mortgaging the future of its youth for weapons that may not even arrive”, citing repeated US delivery setbacks, including F-16V jets, torpedoes and AGM-154 missiles.
Spending on this scale, he argued, risked becoming “protection money – paid without protection”. He was referring to US President Donald Trump’s demand that its allies, including Taiwan, must pay for US protection.
Cross-strait tensions have worsened in recent years since the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took power in the island. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary, and has ramped up pressure on Taiwan since Lai took office last year.
Most countries, including the island’s main international partner the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is legally bound to supply it with weapons to defend itself.
Beijing’s military is on a massive modernisation drive but it has never announced any time frame for reunification. The year 2027 marks the centennial of the founding of the PLA, which aims to be a modern military by 2035 and a “world-class” force by 2049.
KMT firebrand legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin said military expenditure would hit nearly 4 per cent of GDP next year, and could reach 5 per cent “without any clarity on where the money will come from”.
She said the government should first implement long-overdue military pay rises rather than “pour billions into hardware alone”.
Opposition lawmakers also warned that the unprecedented military spending could force deep cuts to welfare, health and education, or drive tax increases and borrowing that future generations must carry.
“Taiwan is already heavily indebted and the long-term fiscal outlook is bleak, with budget surpluses unlikely before 2030,” KMT legislator Lee Yen-hsiu warned.
“Healthcare, education and social welfare could all bend under the weight of defence spending.”
New Taipei City councillor Chen Wei-chieh also questioned where the money would come from.
“Over a trillion in new spending – funded by what? New taxes? Cuts to public services?” he said, adding that defence must not come from “a black box financed by future generations”.
Taiwan’s 2026 budget forecasts NT$3.13 trillion in expenditure and NT$2.86 trillion in revenue, plus an estimated NT$126.5 billion in debt repayments. That leaves a fiscal shortfall of roughly NT$400 billion, which the government plans to cover through borrowing – raising fresh concerns over long-term sustainability.
But the DPP dismissed claims that Lai was heightening tensions.
“China’s military intimidation has been concrete and constant,” spokesman Wu Cheng said. “It is only responsible for the government to bolster self-defence.”
DPP lawmaker Chen Kuan-ting also said security came from preparedness, not restraint.
“When prepared, conflict may not come; when unprepared, it will. The way to reduce risk is to prepare.” -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
