WASHINGTON: Peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul ended on Nov 7 without making headway, fuelling concerns of renewed cross-border attacks and retaliation that could worsen unless there is a resolution soon.
“The talks in Istanbul are at a stalemate and over,” said Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, referring to the third round of negotiations since October.
A border conflict could destabilise both nations as well as regional security, officials and analysts said.
The latest series of talks, brokered by Turkey and Qatar, followed a surge in cross-border attacks inside Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group Islamabad accuses the Taliban government in Kabul of sheltering.
The unrelenting assaults, which have killed dozens of Pakistani security personnel in recent months, prompted retaliatory air strikes by Pakistan in Kabul and several Afghan provinces, pushing the two neighbours to the brink of open conflict.
“Let me assure them (Taliban) that Pakistan does not need to employ even a fraction of its full arsenal to completely obliterate the Taliban regime and push them back to the caves,” Minister Asif warned on X after an earlier round of talks ended in failure.
Asif reiterated on Nov 7 that nuclear-armed Pakistan would launch what he called a “befitting response” if any assault were launched from Afghan soil.
On paper, Pakistan’s military strength outmatches that of its neighbour. Pakistan’s Armed Forces is estimated to have around 650,000 personnel who are more professionally organised than Afghanistan’s Taliban-controlled fighters, who number 405,000, mainly functioning as ground-based militias.
Pakistan’s military also operates modern fighter jet aircraft and tanks, while the Taliban rely on ageing US and Soviet-era equipment, according to the CIA World Factbook and other sources. The danger, though, is that the Taliban could wage a long and grinding guerrilla war if the conflict escalates.
“There is no real military comparison between Afghanistan and Pakistan; however, the Taliban’s guerrilla warfare tactics remain evident. The greatest concern lies in their ability to carry out prolonged, coordinated attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilian targets, contributing to ongoing instability in the country,” said Dr Moonis Ahmar, meritorious professor of international relations and former dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Karachi University.
Long record of violence
Islamabad accuses the Taliban government of sheltering the TTP since 2021, the year they assumed power in Kabul after the US and Nato withdrew their forces.
The TTP has a long record of attacks on Pakistani military and civilian targets that stretches back to 2001, when the US war on terror began. The group aims to overthrow Pakistan’s government and set up an emirate based on its strict interpretation of Sharia in Pashtun-inhabited regions along the border with Pakistan.
Most Pashtun-speaking people live on the plains of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or in the highlands of the semi-autonomous Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).
Among the TTP’s most infamous acts were the 2012 attack on Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai and the 2014 Peshawar school massacre that left more than 132 children dead.
The militants retain deep ideological and operational ties with the Afghan Taliban, having backed them during the fight against US and Nato forces in Afghanistan. The Pakistan military says that since the Taliban’s return, the TTP has used sanctuaries inside Afghanistan to step up strikes against Pakistan.
During the talks, the Taliban demanded restoring the Pakistani tribal belt, adjacent to Afghanistan.
“The Taliban, instead of addressing Pakistan’s genuine demand to end their patronage of the TTP, called for the restoration of the Fata and pushed for the enforcement of an Afghanistan-style Sharia system in those border regions,” a source close to the recent negotiations told The Straits Times.
Historically, the Fata comprised semi-autonomous tribal territories in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and shared a long and porous border with Afghanistan. In 2018, Pakistan merged these areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through an act of parliament, formally ending their separate administrative status.
The Taliban’s demand is sensitive for Islamabad because it revives Afghanistan’s longstanding claim to Pakistani territory. The Durand Line, drawn in 1893 under British rule and never recognised by Kabul, was inherited by Pakistan at independence in 1947 and has remained a source of tension ever since.
“The Pakistani military will likely reject this demand,” said Professor Tricia Bacon of the School of Public Affairs and the School of International Service at American University. “Particularly because the motivation behind it appears to be the TTP’s desire to carve out an area it can govern without interference or to lay the groundwork for future secession.”
Pakistan also accuses its eastern neighbour, India, of using the TTP as a proxy in Afghanistan. The Pakistani military, which has long handled counter-insurgency operations, refers to the group as Fitna al-Khawarij, a term meaning “the scourge of rebels”, and portrays it as an Indian-backed proxy force.
The allegation gained traction after Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi paid a landmark visit to India in mid-October, even as fierce skirmishes with Pakistan flared along its western border.
“The Taliban’s warm relationship with India is more a symptom of its increasingly hostile posture towards Islamabad rather than the cause,” Prof Bacon told ST, adding that “New Delhi may certainly encourage those impulses.”
Dr Ahmar told ST: “Pakistan has supported Afghanistan for over five decades, extending refuge and political backing. It is deeply regrettable that Kabul now appears to be undermining Islamabad’s interests by acting as a proxy for India.”
Archrivals Pakistan and India have fought three wars since gaining independence from British rule in 1947. In May 2025, they came perilously close to a full-scale war, with air strikes and dogfights breaking out between the two nuclear-armed countries.
The US has also expressed concern over unchecked TTP activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, seeking to curb the militant group to prevent it from unleashing terrorism beyond the region.
The US Intelligence Community’s 2025 assessment noted that while the TTP mainly targets Pakistan, its capabilities, ties to Al-Qaeda and potential for transnational attacks remain a concern.
US concerns
Analysts say Washington is unlikely to redeploy troops to the region after its 2021 withdrawal, though counter-terrorism cooperation with Islamabad could increase given recent improvements in bilateral ties, Prof Bacon added.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir have visited the US repeatedly, meeting US President Donald Trump, who has lauded Pakistan’s efforts in containing terrorist threats to regional and global security. Trump has also offered his help to reach a peace deal.
Islamabad has also requested more intelligence support and equipment, including night vision goggles, to bolster operations against insurgents.
With negotiations stalled and both sides sticking firmly to their positions, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan remains a flashpoint.
The risk is that unless Islamabad and Kabul rein in their proxies and contain cross-border violence, the region risks sliding back into instability reminiscent of the 2000s, with wider implications for regional and global security.
If the peace process fails, “history will repeat itself and things will turn uglier now,” said Dr Ahmar, referring to the 2000s during the war on terror when there were suicide and bomb attacks across Pakistan. - The Straits Times/ANN
