Chinese city bucks birth rate decline as cash incentives bear fruit


Generous cash incentives to encourage births are paying off in one Chinese city, where the number of newborns saw a 17 per cent surge in 2024, bucking a continuous downward trend observed since 2016.

Tianmen, a city of about 1 million people in the central province of Hubei, welcomed 1,050 more newborns last year than in 2023 according to government figures unveiled last week, a rare bright spot amid a national trend of falling birth rates and an ageing population – both of which present challenges to long-term prosperity.

Local governments and major companies alike have spent more to raise birth rates in response to calls from Beijing. Leading electric vehicle maker Xpeng, for instance, recently announced a cash reward of 30,000 yuan (US$4,091) for employees that become parents of a third child.

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The surprising statistic was revealed in a report submitted to the annual session of the local legislative body, but did not include the total number of newborns from last year. An earlier article from the official Hubei Daily said that 6,530 babies were born in the city between January and November. This represented an increase of 910, or 16 per cent, over the same period in 2023.

Tianmen’s change in fortunes was attributed to several benefits that were strengthened over the past year, the total monetary value of which can reach 220,000 yuan for a family with a third child.

The suite of incentives includes a 120,000 yuan coupon for the purchase of a home, a one-off cash payment of 3,000 yuan and a monthly subsidy of 1,000 yuan paid until the child turns three.

Xpeng founder He Xiaopeng announced the cash incentives in a video clip released on Chinese social media platform Weibo last week. The company employed over 13,000 people as of June, according to financial information terminal Wind.

Starting this year, he said, those having a third child will receive a 30,000 yuan reward, and the amount will increase for the fourth or fifth.

“We did so because we want our employees to have more kids. I think the company ought to take care of the money, so employees can have children.”

While many local governments have rolled out incentives to stimulate births and more employers are offering their own forms of financial support, few have yielded tangible results.

In 2023, just over 9 million babies were born nationwide, the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1949. The low figure meant the country suffered a second annual fall in its total population.

But “Tianmen’s case proves that cash incentives are making a difference,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer.

“If childbearing subsidies have no effect, it is because they are too small and need to be increased,” he wrote on WeChat on Monday.

Data on changes to the national population in 2024 is expected to be released later this week. Demographers are expecting a moderate uptick in newborns in 2024, partly credited to the influence of last year’s zodiac sign – the Year of the Dragon, traditionally favoured as an auspicious time for births – reversing eight consecutive years of decline.

Last month, several hospitals in Guangdong province reported surges in childbirth for 2024. One facility said on December 25 that more than 10,000 babies had been born there since the start of 2024, a jump of over 23 per cent from the year before.

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