President Joko Widodo (left) pins the insignia of honorary general on Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto in a ceremony in Jakarta on Feb 28, 2024. - Antara
JAKARTA: Presumptive presidential election winner Prabowo Subianto will need to maintain a “cordial relationship” with outgoing leader President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo if he is to fulfill many of his ambitious campaign promises, experts say, as they weigh in on the likely challenges faced by a Prabowo administration.
The official results are not due until Wednesday (March 20), but experts have attributed Prabowo’s likely victory to his decision to choose Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate and for having run on a campaign platform based on continuing many of Jokowi’s policies.
But whether or not the two politicians can maintain their good relationship or if friction will arise after Prabowo assumes office in October will be the biggest question heading into Prabowo’s presidency, said political analyst Wasisto Raharjo Jati of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
“Normally, once the successor takes charge, they upend [their predecessor’s] programmes and start their own. So I think the biggest question for Prabowo is if he can maintain a cordial relationship once Jokowi steps down, or if he will take the lead without Jokowi,” Wasisto said during a discussion held by The Jakarta Post on Monday.
Using the power struggle between Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, whose daughter is the current vice president, as an example, Wasisto said that the ties between Prabowo and Jokowi would likely depend on what role Jokowi would play in Prabowo’s administration.
“Friction [between a president and his predecessor] can happen, it’s normal. But how Prabowo sets up a code of conduct [if that happens] among his coalition will be the main key [for ensuring stability] in his administration,” Wasisto added.
Speculation has been rife that the outgoing President is seeking a major role in the selection of cabinet members in an effort to maintain his political influence after leaving office and to ensure that the next administration is well positioned to pursue his policy aims.
Prabowo’s camp has previously said that Jokowi will play a “significant” role in shaping the next administration’s cabinet and policies but insists that Prabowo will have the final say.
Speaking during Monday’s discussion, Prabowo campaigner Drajad Hari Wibowo of the National Mandate Party (PAN) downplayed the possibility of a potential rift between Prabowo and Jokowi, saying that he had no doubts that the two can “work together in tandem”.
“Of course the authority from [October] 2024 [onward] will rest with Prabowo, so Jokowi will step aside and act as an advisor. But, these two superb Indonesians will still need each other in the future,” he said.
In its first 100 days, Drajad said that the Prabowo administration’s priority would be to ensure a smooth continuation for many of Jokowi’s policies, while launching several policies from the Prabowo-Gibran campaign manifesto, including the pair’s flagship free school lunch programme and a new state revenue agency.
The free meal programme has in recent weeks garnered criticism over misplaced priorities and doubts over its feasibility, including from economist Teguh Dartanto of the University of Indonesia, one of the panellists during Monday’s discussion.
Teguh said the programme could undermine the country’s fiscal stability and, unless the Prabowo administration can increase state revenue, might force Indonesia to take on more debt.
But Drajad said that the Prabowo-Gibran campaign team was confident that the planned state revenue agency, in addition to alternative revenue sources, would be enough to fund the school lunch programme.
“We will continue [with the free school lunch programme], please correct us if we take a wrong turn, but as an academic myself, these criticisms are what we need,” Drajad said.
Another panellist in Monday’s discussion, defence expert Curie Maharani Savitri, predicted that the Prabowo administration would continue many of Prabowo’s prevailing defence policies, but that these policies would be part of a larger effort to ensure Indonesia’s sustainability, including in the sectors of food and energy.
“I see the rationale of Prabowo trying to strike a balance between defence and development needs,” she said.
“As such, we can conclude Prabowo's manifesto is actually dominated by an economic vision, not defence, although defence is an important part of that.” - The Jakarta Post/ANN
