CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu, one of India’s most industrialised states, is headed for a surprise election outcome, with a film star pulling well ahead of the incumbent in the ongoing vote counting.
The incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, led by M.K. Stalin, is trailing the newly-formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, according to Election Commission data. The strong showing by the TVK, founded by actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay in February 2024, has defied most exit polls that had predicted a comfortable win for Stalin’s party.
The southern state, one of India’s wealthiest, is a major hub for car and electronics exports and has attracted significant foreign investment in recent years, including facilities tied to Apple’s iPhone production.
Early trends show the TVK leading in 107 seats, with the DMK at 48 and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam at 58. A party needs 118 seats to secure a majority in the state’s assembly and form the government. The trends could still change as counting continues.
If the trends hold, Vijay’s party could form a government with minimal support from other parties or independent lawmakers. This would be a major upset in a state long dominated by the duopoly of the DMK and AIADMK, whose alternating rule has left little room for credible challengers.
Both parties have previously seen people from the film industry rise to political leadership and govern the state.
Vijay’s surge appears to be driven largely by young voters, with his campaign focused on jobs, stipends and education loans. The message seems to have resonated with first-time voters, while his outsider image and film appeal have helped broaden his support.
Vijay’s rise seems to rest on a largely youth-driven movement against the DMK and the traditional political elite in Tamil Nadu, said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The larger significance is that his party, TVK, has single-handedly transformed a reliable two-front state into a three-front battleground,” he said.
"This upends decades of Tamil politics.” - Bloomberg L.P.
