One very vocal “educated urban Chinese housewife” in Selangor has declared that she and her friends won’t be voting because they feel that they were played out by Pakatan twice – in 2018 and 2023 – and are willing to “give the states to the Opposition and its so-called ‘green tsunami’”.
Another disillusioned Chinese voter says he cannot bring himself to vote for Pakatan again but is still not willing to cast his ballot for Perikatan Nasional because, to him, “their leaders have extreme views that are not suitable for multiracial Malaysia”.
Well, this aunty here, another educated urban Chinese voter who has no great love for PMX, his deputy prime minister and the rather flaccid unity government, is still determined to cast her vote for the Pakatan candidate in her state constituency in Selangor.
My logic is simple: This is not the time to teach Pakatan a lesson for joining forces with Barisan Nasional (read: Umno) because we cannot risk my beloved state being ruled by the likes of Perikatan.
Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang must continue to be Pakatan-held states and strengthen Anwar’s hand at the federal level. We cannot give any reason to those disingenuous politicians to topple the present federal administration because we absolutely cannot bear any more political instability and power-grabbing moves if we want our nation to recover and regain our competitive edge.
Anwar as PM is our best hope to lead our multiracial nation and he must be given more time to deliver on the promised reforms. If, indeed, he and his government fail to do so in the next four years, then we can boot them out in GE16. Hopefully, by then, voters will have better choices as well.
While the other states are important, Selangor is the litmus test because it is the richest and most developed state of all. And how the Malays vote could be the deciding factor.
If we go by the findings of a survey conducted by Endeavour-MGC (EMGC) of voters in 34 state constituencies considered marginal seats, Pakatan should be able to win and continue governing Selangor, as reported by Sunday Star.
These are seats that Pakatan won with a less than 25% majority and in which it received below 50% of the popular vote in GE15. The survey polled 1,068 registered voters – 67.8% Malay, 15.6% Chinese, 12.4% Indian and 4.2% others.
The findings confirm the solid support that Pakatan has from non-Malays but also show that 69% of Malays approve of the Pakatan-Barisan unity government. More than half of the respondents – 62% all races and 52% Malays – also say they would vote for Pakatan in the upcoming state election.
The EMGC poll also found that 64% of Malay respondents approved of the overall performance of Anwar as prime minister and the unity government at the federal level.
Furthermore, 68% of Malay respondents gave high ratings for Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari as Selangor mentri besar and his state government, and they want him to be MB again if Pakatan retains the state.
So no worries for Pakatan because Selangor is safe, right? Interestingly, another survey gives contradictory findings.
This is the poll conducted by Institut Masa Depan Malaysia from March 1 to April 20 that collected 1,200 samples across ethnic groups in 39 Malay-majority state seats in Selangor.
A paper published on July 5 on https://www.iseas.edu.sg titled “Why Perikatan Nasional may win in Selangor” by International Islamic University’s Assoc Prof Marzuki Mohamad and Institut MASA researcher Khairul Syakirin Zulkifli examined the sub-sample of 850 Malay voters, focusing on vote transferability among this group.
As the paper’s authors see it, “there is no significant vote transferability between PH and BN. This means that BN Malay voters may not necessarily transfer their votes to PH candidates in the state election and vice versa, despite the two parties forming a coalition government at the federal level” because it is a coalition formed by “ideologically incompatible political parties”.
They add, “Instead, each party runs the risk of losing its core supporters should there be no vote transferability between them” and that “there is greater likelihood that BN Malay voters will transfer their votes to PN candidates instead”.
On the surface, the paper would seem unbiased and scholarly sound since it is published on the respected Singapore-based Yusof Ishak Institute website. But former Bangi MP Dr Ong Kian Ming was quick to reveal that Marzuki is a former principal private secretary to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the institute’s chairman.
Despite the doubt cast on the survey’s credibility, there seems to be a basis for the authors’ assertion that there will be a Pakatan-Barisan low vote transferability, given the parties’ historical rivalry.
Pakatan supporters, like the disgruntled Chinese voters, cannot stomach corruption-tainted Umno in the coalition and Barisan supporters cannot accept their party’s cooperation with their most bitter political foe, DAP.
Whether the situation has changed since the survey was done because Anwar and Pakatan-Barisan leaders and candidates have been able to convincingly blunt Perikatan-PAS attacks, a major factor affecting voter sentiment they have to contend with is the economy, with 56% of Malays (54% all races) in the EMGC survey saying that they are extremely concerned about the impact of inflation on their personal finances.
Yet the Madani economic policies haven’t been well disseminated to the ground, with 68% of Malay respondents (70% of all races) being unaware of any government policies or initiatives aimed at curbing inflation or reducing the cost of living.
On the other hand, Marzuki and Khairul paint a glowing picture of Perikatan when it was in power as having a “narrative of good governance, anti-corruption, and care for the people, as shown by the various fiscal and non-fiscal assistance given to the people through the eight economic stimulus packages rolled out during its 17 months in power, captured the imagination of Malay voters and convinced them that PN may be a better alternative to Umno”.
It’s a claim even that educated urban Chinese housewife buys into. She questioned why Muhyiddin was able to “implement so many programmes and subsidies and spent billions to help us tide over” but Anwar can’t keep his promises, like reducing fuel prices, by claiming the government has no money.
Well, one should remember that our economy was in good shape and we had strong reserves before Covid-19 hit, which was how Muhyiddin could bankroll those financial aid packages and overbuy vaccines with questionable oversight. But that heavy spending left very little in the kitty for the unity government.
Malaysians who are inclined to believe the Perikatan government was effective in handling the pandemic should consider the findings of Khazanah researchers Yin Shao Loong and Wan Amirah Wan Usamah in their paper “The Malaysian Economy and Covid-19: Policies and responses from January 2020–April 2021” published under the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Research Paper Series.
They explain that “In theory, a short, sharp lockdown would help break the chain of viral transmission, prevent the health service from being overwhelmed and buy time to prepare for more agile containment of the pandemic – via testing and tracing – that would allow more social and economic activity to resume”.
This is what is known as the “hammer and dance” whereby an agile dance follows the hammer, displacing the need for blanket lockdowns with targeted ones as needed.
They add, however, that when “the hammer of lockdown is deployed repeatedly, (it) leaves a battered economy and society. This was the case in Malaysia”.
The result, the researchers say, was that many sectors suffered and continued to struggle in 2021 because of the pandemic, “compounded by poor governance in managing it”.
So Muhyiddin’s Perikatan is a better alternative to ruling my state or the Federal Government? No way, Jose!
Even if the EMGC survey shows that the numbers favour Pakatan in Selangor, all the political analysts and pundits say Pakatan will need a high Chinese and Indian turnout to counter the expected surge of Malay support for Perikatan. Indeed, EMGC says Perikatan can win if the Malay voter turnout on polling day is 20% higher or more than the non-Malay turnout.
Therefore, no matter how deep the disappointment or election fatigue we feel, Selangorian non-Malay voters must come out in full strength to save our state from the clutches of Perikatan.
I’m proud that my sister is flying back from Singapore just to do that.
The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
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