US President Donald Trump has declared that the United States has won its war against Iran, and that the conflict could end in a few weeks as the “objectives have been met”.
If he says the US has won, so be it, as long the US attacks really stop in the coming weeks. Thank you very much, Trump. You had our attention.
But we have all got used to his mood swings, tantrums, bullying, insults, and constant change of deadlines.
First, he issued a deadline for March 27, then he adjusted from seven days to 10 days, and then on March 26 Trump announced a further delay, pushing it to April 6.
He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz – a critical artery for global oil – is not opened by this time, he would blow up Iranian energy infrastructure, including desalination plants.
In a post on his Truth Social platform on April 1, he said that until the Strait of Hormuz “is open, free and clear” the US would be “blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, back to the Stone Ages”.
It would not be wrong to suggest that many do not think the US has really won the war despite the extensive bombing of Iran’s military assets and the deaths of over 100,000 Iranians, including children.
From the outset, the US entered the war with a shifting set of objectives: crippling Iran’s military, halting its nuclear ambitions, weakening its regional proxies, and forcing a regime change.
Trump’s victory declaration is no more than a political narrative. Eliminating Iranian leaders – with the help of Israel – is hardly a regime change.
These leaders may have been assassinated but they can be replaced. The regime structure remains.
The Revolutionary Guard still operates. Its regional influence has not collapsed. And crucially, there is no clear political settlement in sight.
Trump’s statements have been notably inconsistent – declaring the war nearly over, already won, and yet still ongoing, sometimes within the same week.
The world is wondering if he even has a plan.
More telling is the quiet dilution of aims. Early priorities, such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz, are no longer central to the exit strategy.
Instead, the administration now signals that it may leave even without achieving such outcomes.
It looks like the US can’t do much if Iran refuses to open the Strait except to friendly nations or demands payment – in Chinese yuan – from less favoured countries that need to use the waterway.
Trump has also threatened to “obliterate” or seize Iran’s key oil hub, Kharg Island, by suggesting potential control of the terminal, possibly by deploying ground troops.
If that happens, we will see a major escalation of the war. We will see real combat between American/Israeli and Iranian troops.
Trump talks of ending the war, but has increased the American military presence, including soldiers and marines, to over 50,000 personnel. Hundreds of elite forces have also arrived to guard the Strait.
If these US soldiers set foot on Iranian territory, we can expect some serious combat.
Bodies being brought home in coffins wrapped in the Stars and Stripes will certainly be horrible optics ahead of the US mid-term elections for the House of Representatives and Senate.
This raises a fundamental question: If core objectives can be abandoned, what exactly constitutes success?
How can it be a victory for the US – or anyone – when the war has destabilised the Middle East, disrupted global economies, spiked oil prices and inflation, and strained alliances, with European partners distancing themselves from Washington?
In the US, the political cost is mounting. A significant majority of Americans now favour ending the war – even if objectives remain unmet.
American consumers are fuming that they have to pay more for the gas they are using in their cars and for the food on their tables.
This is not the profile of a nation confident in victory. It is the profile of a country seeking an exit.
The danger of Trump declaring a premature victory, however, masks unresolved threats and leaves underlying conflicts to fester.
The US may have signalled its intention to walk away but stopping the bombing does not necessarily end the war – or secure the region.
Israel hasn’t said anything about ending the war. It has not respected any ceasefire agreement in Gaza and it has continued to bomb the place.
In short, peace has not been respected or secured. The same will happen in Iran even if the US stops its attacks.
Without a diplomatic framework, without a stable post-war order, and without clarity about what has been achieved, military success risks becoming strategically hollow.
So has the US really won the war, met its objectives, destroyed Iranian assets, toppled the regime, and stopped Iran from building a nuclear bomb?
Yes, militarily, it has inflicted damage but strategically, the answer is far less clear.
It is clear that Iran is not defeated, the regime has remained, and most likely
the war itself may end not
with resolution but with withdrawal.
To put it bluntly, it is a pointless war, and even if it is quickly ended, the bottom line is how little it ultimately changed the political equation in Iran.
If Trump was hoping for a quickie result like the arrest of Venezuela president Nicolas Maduro recently, he got his calculations all wrong.
The reality is, the world has to pay the price for the stupid war started by Trump. Even if he orders a pullout in the coming weeks, we will still bear the consequences for a long time.
National Journalism Laureate Datuk Seri Wong Chun Wai is the chairman of Bernama. The views expressed here are solely his own.
Wong Chun Wai
Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.
