The Erosion of Restraint in the Taiwan Strait

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan’s current ruling party, came to power after Lai Ching-te won the January 2024 election and delivered his inaugural address on 20 May 2024. Two years later, it is difficult to avoid a sobering conclusion: cross-strait relations are now more fragile, more hostile, and more ideologically entrenched than they were at the start of his term in office.

Strategic rivalry between China and the United States has intensified across multiple fronts, and Taiwan inevitably sits at the centre of this contest. Yet leadership choices, political rhetoric, and signalling also matter. And over the past two years, the Lai administration has often appeared more interested in sharpening Taiwan’s distinct political identity and foreclosing any possible political reconciliation than in preserving the delicate ambiguity that long helped maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait.