Modi’s Comeback

NARENDRA Modi, one of India’s most recognisable leaders, remains an enigma. He is omnipresent in the Indian political landscape, yet people are constantly curious to discern his thoughts and predict his next move.

A daring leader, Modi is known for making bold, sometimes divisive, decisions, but he is also politically astute, ready to adjust course when necessary. He is a figure who draws fierce criticism from his detractors, yet even they often express a reluctant respect for his political prowess and resilience.

Modi’s complex blend of attributes—austerity with charisma, nationalism with pragmatism—allows him to navigate both domestic and international arenas with considerable influence. He is a leader who remains as compelling as he is controversial, leaving people captivated by the question of what he might do next.

In a previous column, I said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was widely expected to lead the BJP to a resounding victory in the Indian general elections. However, the actual results defied these expectations. Under Modi’s leadership, the BJP suffered unexpected losses in several key states, which were previously considered strongholds. This result marked a significant shift from Modi’s near-decade-long dominance and a return to coalition politics. This time, the BJP did not secure an outright majority, facing notable setbacks in states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Haryana.

The BJP’s inability to achieve a majority can be attributed to a variety of factors. Rising unemployment, increasing inflation, and heightened inequality contributed to voter dissatisfaction. Modi’s government faced criticism over contentious policies such as the Agnipath military recruitment scheme, which aimed to overhaul the army’s recruitment process but was met with protests, particularly among young people and rural voters.

Additionally, his campaign rhetoric, which some viewed as divisive towards Muslims, alienated a portion of the electorate. This environment of discontent was fertile ground for the opposition INDI-alliance, led by Congress, which made significant inroads into traditionally BJP-dominated states.

The BJP’s decline was stark in the key states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Haryana. These states wield significant electoral influence and often dictate national political trends.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP’s seat count decreased by over 20%, a substantial drop considering the state’s importance with its 80 parliamentary seats. The INDI-alliance effectively mobilised rural voters, leveraging issues like agricultural distress and fears of reservation rollbacks.

The opposition succeeded in swaying the state’s Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Dalit voters, by playing upon concerns about potential changes to reservation policies.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP lost approximately seven seats, the Congress party capitalised on rural discontent. The opposition campaign centred on Modi’s perceived elitism and detachment from grassroots issues, which resonated with rural voters who felt left behind by his economic reforms.

However, there has been dramatic shift in the recently concluded state elections.

One of the most dramatic moments in this election cycle occurred in Haryana where the BJP defied all predictions of a Congress victory driven by anti-incumbency sentiment and discontent among Jat voters.

Despite this, the BJP pulled off a remarkable upset, winning 48 seats compared to Congress’s 37. Although both BJP and Congress had nearly equal vote shares (around 39%), BJP’s marginal gains were concentrated in specific constituencies, allowing it to convert these votes into seats. Congress’ focus on Jat-centric issues, under its state leader, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, alienated the state’s OBC and Dalit voters.

BJP capitalised on this, consolidating non-Jat votes under the leadership of its incumbent chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, a prominent OBC face, which helped them secure critical victories in crucial areas. Factionalism within Congress also played a role.

Despite their resurgence at the national level, Congress’ state campaign was abysmal. Some say, Congress has mastered the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP managed to secure 29 out of 90 seats, despite the challenging political environment. This region presents unique challenges, given the recent abrogation of Article 370 and ongoing security concerns. Despite these factors,

BJP’s focus on development and promises of improved infrastructure resonated with voters, particularly in Jammu, where Hindu-majority constituencies traditionally support the BJP.

However, tensions over job losses, curfews, and security measures in the Kashmir Valley limited BJP’s success in Muslim-majority areas. Nonetheless, the party’s gains underscored its capacity to maintain influence even in regions with significant opposition, revealing a resilient BJP machinery that can recalibrate its strategies to match local political climates.

For the first time since 2014, Modi must lead a coalition government. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now relies on partners such as the Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party, led by seasoned politicians Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. Managing these alliances will be a delicate balancing act.

The 2024 budget, announced shortly after the general elections, allocated substantial funds to Bihar and Andhra Pradesh—Kumar’s and Naidu’s respective states.

This financial largesse has placated the two leaders for now but also signals Modi’s awareness that coalition politics requires a more consultative approach. Unlike his previous terms, where Modi

could rely on a BJP majority to push through his agenda, he must now accommodate the demands of regional partners who have their own state-specific priorities and constituencies to appease. The challenge for Modi is twofold: First, he must ensure that his coalition partners feel their states are prioritised, particularly in areas like infrastructure development, agricultural subsidies, and social welfare schemes.

Second, he must avoid alienating his core BJP supporters, who might view these concessions as compromising the party’s nationalistic agenda.

Looking forward, state elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi will be critical tests for Modi’s coalition strategy. Maharashtra, in particular, will be closely watched, as the BJP’s general election performance there was lacklustre. The state has a high concentration of rural voters and an influential OBC population that BJP must win over to regain its standing.

Modi’s ability to rebuild trust among these communities will be crucial. Maharashtra’s upcoming election will serve as a litmus test for BJP’s adaptability and Modi’s enduring appeal. Jharkhand presents another challenge, where BJP faces stiff competition from regional parties with strong tribal support bases.

BJP’s approach will need to counter these influences by emphasising its development initiatives, particularly in infrastructure and healthcare.

In Delhi, BJP faces a formidable opponent in the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has built a solid support base through its focus on healthcare and education. The BJP will need to present a unique platform to appeal to urban voters in the capital, who may be less swayed by nationalistic rhetoric and more concerned with practical governance issues.

As Modi faces the challenge of coalition governance, the stakes have never been higher.

The results of these upcoming elections will offer a clearer picture of whether the BJP can maintain its grip on Indian politics or if a new era of coalition dynamics will shift the political landscape.

Modi’s ability to adapt, the BJP’s organisational strength, and the opposition’s resilience will all shape the future of Indian politics. In an environment where public sentiment can change swiftly, Modi’s adaptability and the BJP’s resourcefulness remain key assets that could tip the balance in their favour once again. This is clearly Modi’s comeback.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own