Umno needs its groove back

I REWIND to July 2015 and the height of the 1MDB scandal linked to then prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Most of us were shocked and naturally concerned as well.

At the same time, former PM Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed was also incessantly attacking the government about the same scandal. With these latest revelations, we feared Dr Mahathir would only become more ferocious and nastier in his attacks.

At the time, I was political secretary to former Gerakan president Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong. Mah and his closest advisors hunkered down to discuss the implications of these revelations. We asked ourselves, what do we do?

Immediately, one of us snapped and said, we would stay silent because nothing we could say would improve the situation. We also did not want to complicate matters for Najib any further.

To digress a little, Gerakan and Najib enjoyed an excellent and productive relationship. I worked for two Gerakan presidents, both serving under Najib. I witnessed first-hand how Najib always appreciated Gerakan's input on issues and concerns.

We always prepared memos, position papers and advocacy documents for him on various matters of national importance. We also provided solutions to him in these documents. Najib always said where Gerakan lacked in numbers, it made up in ideas.

As my political mentor, Datuk Gooi Hoe Hin and I sat back in our chairs and pondered the turn of things, I remember Gooi telling me that Umno would split and would not recover from this split.

Gooi is one of the unsung heroes of Gerakan. He worked with all Gerakan presidents – Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu, Tun Dr Lim Keng Yaik, Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon and Mah.

Gooi was an intellectual powerhouse, always ready with ideas and solutions but sorely underappreciated in the "scheme of things." Party politics is a nasty business, and because he did so well serving all presidents, he could not rise to high office because that is the nature of party politics. Alas, he remains my role model in politics.

In our musings, Gooi reminded me that Umno had split too many times. The first split was in 1950 with the formation of PAS. The second split was in 1988 when Semangat 46 was formed.

The third split was in 1998 when Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was sacked, followed by the formation of Keadilan (later PKR). Every Malay party in Malaysia owes its genesis to Umno. As the Umno song says, it is "rumpun Melayu."

Not long after, I reached out to one of Najib's political secretaries to share Gooi's theory that if Umno splits over 1MDB, it could be the death knell of Umno. In hushed tones, I was told not to worry; Umno was talking to PAS. And with the unhappiness of PAS leaders over its association with DAP, it would not take much to cleave away PAS from Pakatan Rakyat (as it then was).

In tragedy, Umno could put its new bonhomie with PAS to the test. Tan Sri Noriah Kasnon, MP of Sungai Besar in Selangor and Datuk Wan Mohamad Khair-il Wan Ahmad, MP of Kuala Kangsar in Perak, perished in a helicopter crash in May 2016 while campaigning in the Sarawak state election. Their deaths necessitated by-elections.

PAS agreed to put up candidates at Umno's behest and walked away from Pakatan Rakyat. This formula worked so well, and Umno won big in both by-elections. Najib was buoyed and felt the worst of 1MDB was behind him.

Internally, I was very concerned about this arrangement because those who studied and understood Malay/Muslim politics realised that PAS will not always be happy playing second fiddle to Umno. PAS will want to supplant Umno. I sounded the alarms in many Barisan Nasional meetings, but like always, my concerns fell on deaf ears.

Many senior Barisan leaders told me: "Ivan, you do not understand Malay politics, so it is OK if you do not see the bigger picture."

I was instructed to work with PAS in Teluk Intan as part of Mah's re-election campaign in the 14th General Election in 2018. Meeting PAS leaders was refreshing. Always humble and courteous and never demanding. It contrasted Umno leaders who will always make demands and even shout when they feel they are not being listened to.

So, the prevalent political wisdom at the time was that PAS would take Pakatan Harapan's Malay votes, and Umno would retain power and probably have some back-door arrangement with PAS.

However, this strategy backfired, and Umno and Barisan lost the 14th General Election because PAS took Malay votes from Umno and not Pakatan. Malays who were angry with Umno but did not trust Pakatan had an alternative in PAS.

And the continuation of the arrangement between PAS and Umno in Muafakat Nasional precipitated this demise because PAS grew its base at Umno's expense through their joint programmes and activities. Umno's grassroots conveniently moved to PAS.

I knew that Umno was always the moderate force to PAS because PAS' objectives are straightforward – to achieve the goal of an Islamic state. Umno, on the other hand, despite its hegemony, never pushed for a full-fledged Islamic state.

My friends sneered at me to say, how can I work with Umno. I snapped back and said Umno is the moderate force that must be preserved despite its imperfections. Many non-Malays realise that today, but it is too late because PAS' green wave has swept away Umno.

Umno survived the six state elections because of Pakatan's solid non-Malay support. By some accounts, Pakatan and Barisan only managed around 35% of the Malay vote in Penang and Selangor and about 50% in Negeri Sembilan. It fared worst in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kelantan.

What is needed is for Umno to get its groove back if the unity government is to survive. And going back to the splits in Umno I talked about earlier, PKR, Amanah and Umno must merge to create a Malay counterweight to PAS and Perikatan Nasional.

It is the game changer that the unity government needs and probably the only card left to play.