“UMNO will win the Mahkota by-election. Just plus the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan votes in the last Johor election, and that is roughly the votes they’ll get,” a political operative told me when we chatted about national politics way into the late hours of Friday night.
He was referring to the result of the state election in 2022. Barisan got 16,611 votes (45% of the total votes), while Pakatan received 11,445 (31%) and Perikatan Nasional 7,614 (21%).
“Sure win,” he added.
“Let’s see how the Chinese will vote. Whether the Malays will buy into Perikatan’s 3R (race, religion and royalty) politics or Pakatan Harapan voters will support an Umno candidate,” I said.
The Mahkota seat in Johor became vacant on Aug 2, following the death of its assemblyman, Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain, 63.
The by-election is a straight fight between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional: Kluang Umno Youth chief Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah, 40, is facing Bersatu’s Mohamad Haizan Jaafar, 61.
The following day, I contacted Dr Mazlan Ali, a political analyst who has been on the ground in Johor. One week after the Mahkota nomination day, Mazlan observed that the Madani government candidate was popular among the voters.
“The candidate is cool, and his campaign is well-organised. He is accepted by all races. He can mingle with the voters. He studied in a Chinese school,” he said.
Umno has packaged Syed Hussien as a politician with a deep understanding of Chinese culture, language, and mindset. MCA, a Barisan component party, has called the candidate “Sai Fu Xing,” which means “lucky star.”
However, Mazlan said the Bersatu candidate, Mohamad Haizan, is not that impressive. “Maybe Bersatu will increase the tempo of its campaigning in the second and final week of campaigning,” he said.
He noted that the Perikatan machinery, especially from PAS, is not as spirited as it was during the Nenggiri by-election held on August 17 in the PAS stronghold state of Kelantan.
“PAS machinery in Mahkota is kurang sikit (not much, compared to the unity government’s machinery) as it is not the kubu kuat (stronghold) of the party,” he said.
The political analyst observed that the Barisan and Pakatan machinery is combining well. He elaborated that the unity government’s combined machinery of Barisan and Pakatan is big and has many activities. He also noted that the MCA machinery is very active.
“I can see that MCA is working very hard in the campaigning. Their machinery and bilik gerakan (operations room) are very active,” he said.
The Perikatan’s machinery, however, is slow.
“Perhaps Perikatan is accepting the fate that Mahkota is not its strong base,” he said.
The state seat is also in an urban setting, and the Malay and Chinese communities are more receptive to the Barisan candidate. “Pakatan is in control of the Chinese areas while Barisan is in the Malay areas,” he said.
“The Perikatan brand of politics doesn’t work in Mahkota. Not much crowd in its ceramah.”
On whether the Chinese may be angry with Umno, especially with the war of words between Umno Youth chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh and DAP’s Seputeh MP Teresa Kok over the halal certification issue, Mazlan said it was a non issue.
“The voters see it as a personal fight between Akmal and Teresa. They don’t see it as an Umno versus DAP fight,” he said.
As for Amanah, which is with Pakatan and had been eyeing to be the party to contest in the Mahkota seat, Mazlan said it was not an issue in the by-election.
“Amanah is a party which follows the leadership. When (Pakatan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) says it is a seat for Umno, Amanah will follow,” he said.
Mazlan believes stability is the main issue in the by-election, which Barisan has used to persuade voters to retain its candidate the incumbent.
“They say that voters must support BN as BN rules the Johor state and BN is part of the unity government in the Federal government. It also campaigned that the economy is stable with FDI (foreign direct investment) coming in, and the ringgit is good,” he said.
On paper, Barisan is expected to win the by-election. There will be no surprises, as Perikatan is the underdog. The results this Saturday will be on the percentage of the Barisan majority.
“A good result for the unity government is the total votes (or percentage) that Barisan gets the combined votes it and Pakatan got in 2022.
“This will show that the people is behind the unity government,” the political analyst said.
So far, the mood on the ground shows that the unity government is bersemangat (spirited), while the whole Perikatan is not.
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