Bowing deer and snapping crocodiles

THERE is a type of Sabah politician who is described as a payau. Payau in Sabah refers to the sambar deer.

“Don’t underestimate X, makin dia menunduk, makin dia menanduk (the more he bows his head, the more he will headbutt),” a seasoned politician told me during a sake- inspired dinner in Kota Kinabalu last week.

He means that X, a politician who is one of the most powerful figures in state politics currently, might be seen as a nice guy, but he’s not a pushover.

(Yes, I’m using lots of anonymous letters again to refer to suit-happy people.)

X might bow his head as if he agrees, but be careful, I was warned. Bowing his head is not an act of submission but more of a passive-aggressive move. Using the samba deer analogy, the sake-imbibing politician explained that a stag bows its head to signal that it is about to attack.

In my column last week, I wrote about one of the biggest political questions in Sabah politics at the moment: who will be the next TYT? TYT refers to the Tuan Yang Terutama, or Yang di-Pertua Negeri, or governor.

Depending on who the next TYT is, the centre of political power in Sabah might move from the Chief Minister’s Office to the TYT’s Istana at Signal Hill in Kota Kinabalu.

On the day my column was published last Sunday, a good friend, who is a businessman and occasional politician, called to say, “Don’t discount Y. He has control of Umno. He’s close to [name of a figure close to federal power redacted, not even going to risk a Z],” he said.

“Agreed. Let’s meet for coffee to discuss part two of that article,” I said.

Part two is my home state’s other big political question: Who will be the next Sabah Chief Minister?

Conventional wisdom says that current CM Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor is unshakable, given his party’s strong majority in a state assembly with an anti-party hopping law.

But do you think that will stop ambitious politicians who want to be back in, or take, the most powerful job in Sabah?

People are always asking me who could be Sabah’s CM. I have two different answers, and which one I give depends on my mood.

If I am in a cheeky mood, I’d discuss who will be the powerbroker, who will be CM, or who will put his man in as CM.

Who in Sabah has the money (I’m talking billions here), the ambition to be the most powerful man in Sabah, and the required cunning and political manoeuvring skill, I’d ask in reply.

For those who know anything about Sabah’s Wild, Wild East politics we would usually narrow it down to two names. Most get the first name correct – it is so obvious – but can only guess incorrectly at the second name.

“Is it A?” they’ll ask.

“No, A has ambition but lacks cunning as he listens to advice – only his own advice. But at least he listens to advice,” I say.

“Is it B?” they ask.

“B has four petrol stations, but the powerbrokers have oil rigs,” I say.

So who is the second powerbroker? Well, it’s a Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon figure in Sabah’s wild political jungle. As my friend, the businessman and occasional politician, told me, “Don’t discount Y”.

If I’m in the mood for a lengthy political analysis, I go through the usual and not-so-usual suspects’ list. And I don’t disregard second-tier politicians in my state. There’s a second-tier POI (politician of interest) on the east coast of Sabah who I had only recently come to learn is daydreaming of being CM.

Then there was an up-and- coming politician’s name that kept popping up in my political chats during my recent political tourism trip to Sabah. Inte-restingly, a salacious scandal is also brought up whenever he is mentioned as a possible CM.

Unlike the politics of its Bornean neighbour, Sarawak, Sabah’s politics are fragmented. In Sarawak, you know the king of the political jungle is PBB, Sarawak’s largest party, Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, and that the party’s president, Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg is the man to beat.

At the moment, unless Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS, which is the backbone of the Sabah government now) institutes a significant rebranding, it is likely that no coalition or party can win the state outright with half of the 73 seats in the assembly.

Sabah’s state election night history will repeat itself in the next polls, with the usual mad late-night scramble to get the numbers. It happened in 2018 when Barisan Nasional got 29 seats, Parti Warisan and Pakatan Harapan won 29, and Sabah Star had two. Both sides wooed Sabah Star, led by president Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, who picked Barisan.

(In 2018, 60 seats were up for grabs. But after a redelineation exercise since then, the number of seats expanded to 73.)

When that messy night is repeated again, the figures likely to tip the balance of power are the TYT (that is why the Sabah governor is crucial when the state assembly is dissolved) and/or the Prime Minister. Seasoned Sabah politics watchers know that these two figures will play vital roles in determining who wins the spoils of war.

Some think that politics in the state is currently a wait-and-see game.

Yes and no. Don’t think there is no buaya (crocodile) in the seemingly calm waters of Sabah politics. There are many, and they are plotting and making deals as you read this. The political reptiles with “gently smiling jaws” (to quote Lewis Carroll) are ready to snap at any political prey that makes a mistake.

Who will win: the payau or the buaya? Ah, but a dark horse bet is the Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon politician.