Colours of the Indonesian election

Close race: Motorist ride past banners for political parties and presidential candidates installed along a street in Jakarta. The world’s third-largest democracy is scheduled to hold its presidential elections on Feb 14, which is shaping up as a three-way race among a former special forces general and two former governors. — AP

MERAH (red) dominates the political landscape of Semarang, an Indonesian city in Central Java.

Merah is the colour of PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), headed by former Indonesian president Megawati Soekarnoputri. Semarang is in Central Java, a province which is the benteng (fortress) of the party with the banteng (bull) logo.

PDI-P’s bet among the three candidates running for the president’s spot is Ganjar Pranowo who was the Central Java governor from 2013 to 2023.

“Merah. Jawa Tengah hidup mati PDI-P. Sejarah dari Sukarno,” Bowo Pribadi, a journalist based in Semarang, told me.

He meant Central Java is red and most voters will live and die with PDI-P, which has a history with Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, Megawati’s father.

However, merah is split.

“Sebahagian pecah (Part of PDI-P is split). Sebahagian pergi ke Jokowi (Some have gone with Jokowi),” Bowo said.

The Indonesian presidential election can be seen as a proxy fight between two influential PDI-P leaders: chairwoman Megawati and current Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

Even though Jokowi was PDI-P’s successful bet in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections against Prabowo Subianto, he has gone against the wishes of his party president, Megawati.

The Indonesian president, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, is subtly backing the Gerindra president and current Defence Minister. Actually, come to think about it, not so subtly, as Jokowi’s 36-year-old son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is Prabowo’s running mate.

There are several reasons for the fallout between Megawati and Jokowi. One issue allegedly has an almost decade-old history. In a speech during a PDI-P congress in 2015, six months after Jokowi was inaugurated as president, Megawati demanded that Jokowi obey party orders because he was just a party official and she was in charge of the party.

Another reason is that Jokowi was not consulted by PDI-P or Megawati on the candidacy of Ganjar as the party’s presidential candidate. If elected, Ganjar will “owe” his presidency to Megawati, not Jokowi. So Jokowi picked his candidate, who was twice his presidential rival, Prabowo.

PDI-P has expelled Gibran and Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution, both elected on PDI-P tickets as mayors of Surakarta in Central Java and Medan in North Sumatra, for going against the party.

But the party has not sacked Jokowi.

It can’t afford to alienate the supporters of a president with a more than 70% approval rating.

Surveys show that the Jokowi Effect has turned merah in Central Java to biru (light blue is the colour of the shirts Prabowo and Gibran wear on most of their campaign billboards).

Depending on the surveys, on average, Prabowo has a 42% approval rating among Central Java voters, Ganjar 40% and the third presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan, has 10%.

“Sosok Jokowi berpengaruh (the Jokowi figure has influence),” explained Bowo, the Semarang-based journalist.

Jokowi is popular in Central Java. He was the mayor of Solo, a city in Central Java. Son Gibran is the current mayor of Solo.

The PDI-P voters must decide whether they support Ganjar, the party’s choice, or Prabowo, whom Jokowi is secara halus (subtly) supporting.

I was in Semarang on a political tour after politicians and political analysts told me to go outside Jakarta and visit provinces crucial to winning the presidency as they have a large number of voters.

West Java province has the highest number of voters with 35,714,901, followed by East Java with 31,402,838, Central Java with 28,289,413, North Sumatra with 10,853,940 and Banten with 8,842,646.

From Semarang in Central Java, I took a four-hour 325km train ride eastwards to Surabaya in East Java.

If Central Java is red, East Java is red and green.

Green refers to Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Islamic organisation in the world. It is considered traditionalist as NU tolerates other local cultures that do not contradict Islamic teaching.

PDI-P is prominent in the province, and NU is influential.

“Hijau refers to orang sarong. You wear a sarong when you study at a pesantren [Islamic boarding school],” Wahyoe Boediwardhana, a journalist based in Surabaya, told me.

“NU is born and bred in East Java.”

The three candidates – Anies, Prabowo and Ganjar – are all strong in East Java.

Anies, because his vice presidential candidate, Muhaimin Iskandar, is from East Java. He is the leader of the National Awakening Party (PKB), the most popular Muslim party founded by NU clerics.

The Prabowo-Gibran team is backed by East Java governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa. She heads Muslimat NU, NU’s women’s wing, with 3.1 million members in East Java.

Ganjar’s running mate is Mahfud MD, a senior NU figure from Madura Island in East Java.

“The voters are split three ways. Some NU supporters are backing Anies, Prabowo and Ganjar, while the PDI-P voters are going for Prabowo or Ganjar,” Wahyoe said.

Some surveys put the three candidates’ electability as follows: Prabowo-Gibran at 48.2%, Ganjar-Mahfud at 24.5%, and Anies-Muhaimin at 21.7%.

Central Java and East Java, together with West Java, will be the deciders in the race to be Indonesia’s president. Prabowo is leading in all three provinces.

However, it is not enough.

Prabowo must win more than 50% of the votes cast and at least 20% of the vote in each province to be president. If there is no clear winner in the three-cornered contest, a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes will be held on June 26.

Prabowo needs the Jokowi Effect. Jokowi wants the presidency to be won in satu putaran (one round).

Jokowi needs to be more direct in his choice of president -- that it is the ticket with his son’s name on it.