Datuk Amizar Abu Adam of Umno faces Perikatan Nasional’s Kasim Samat of PAS and Inde-pendent candidate Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli, who was immediately sacked from Umno for contesting.
The seat fell vacant after Umno’s Pelangai assemblyman Datuk Seri Johari Harun died in an aircraft crash in Shah Alam on Aug 17.
In the 15th General Election (GE15) in November 2022, the late Johari won the seat with a majority of 4,048 votes; he won against Kasim, who gained 3,260 votes; Pakatan Harapan’s Ahmed Wafiuddin Shamsuri, who won 2,031 votes; and Pejuang’s Isa Ahmad who had 65 votes.
On paper, Pelangai, which is in the Bentong parliamentary constituency in Pahang, is the type of seat in which Perikatan would thrive: About 70% of the 16,456 voters are Malay and 20% are Chinese.
Unlike the recent twin by-elections in Johor – where Malays made up 44%, Chinese 40% and Indians 12% of the voters in the Pulai parliamentary constituency, while the Simpang Jeram state seat comprised 51% Malays and 44% Chinese – Malays are the clear majority in Pelangai.
In the Johor by-elections, Pakatan Harapan won both seats as it had solid support from Chinese voters, while Perikatan received the most Malay votes.
Umno or Perikatan’s victory in Pelangai will depend on how much support they can get from the Malays – based on the results of the six state polls in August, Perikatan dominated in seats where that community was the majority.
However, Pelangai is an Umno stronghold, and it should be able to retain the seat. If the party wins, it will be a hadiah bungkus for embattled Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who led the party to its worst election performance in GE15.
Pahang is former Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s stronghold. Can Ahmad Zahid carry the seat for the party?
Najib loyalists have warned that the unity government, in which the backbones are Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan and Ahmad Zahid’s Umno, has to release the jailed Najib to arrest the decline in Malay support for the party.
Interestingly, I believe that the Pelangai polls can be seen as a referendum on whether Umno voters are happy with Ahmad Zahid’s discharge not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) from all 47 charges he faced while Najib remains jailed.
It will also be interesting to know which party and candidate former Pahang Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob will support. Adnan was Umno’s Pelangai assemblyman from 1986 to 2022.
Is Adnan still loyal to Umno? Or is he friendly with Perikatan now?
Last month, when he was believed to be supporting Peri-katan chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin at the High Court in Kuala Lumpur, Adnan said: “Umno pun dah nak bungkus dah, bungkus lipat (Umno is going to be folded, wrapped and folded)”.
He said Umno’s performance fell further after its devastating defeat in the six state elections.
If Adnan supports Perikatan in the Pelangai by-election, it will boost the PAS-led coalition.
Let’s examine Umno’s performance in the last by-election in Pahang.
On Dec 7 last year, Umno narrowly retained the Tioman state seat with a 573 majority. Datuk Seri Mohd Johari Hussain of Umno obtained 8,080 votes; defeating Perikatan’s Nor Idayu Hashim who won 7,507 votes; Pakatan’s Mohd Fadzli Mohd Ramly of Pakatan Harapan with 784 votes; Pejuang’s Osman A Bakar with 79; and Independent candidate Sulaiman Bakar with 58.
In the previous election in 2018, Umno won the seat by 1,280 votes. Its majority had been halved last year.
The twin Johor by-elections this year were a must-watch political event. It was fresh after the six state polls and Ahmad Zahid’s DNAA. A victory for Perikatan, especially in the Pulai parliamentary seat, would have kept the Opposition coalition’s momentum going. But Pakatan pulled the brakes on that.
Pelangai is also a must-watch by-election.
A victory for Perikatan would put pressure on the Pahang state government led by Umno.
If Perikatan wins Pelangai, it will have 18 seats in the state assembly, while Umno will only have 16. Pakatan holds eight seats.
There’s no anti-party hopping law in Pahang, and there’s a possibility that if Perikatan wins the by-election, it could cause government assemblymen to jump.
Which party will bungkus the by-election?
While we watch the campaign, pass me the nasi bungkus, will you?
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