Whispers and mysterious moves

DURING campaigning for the Thai elections in May, there were whispers about a possible Langkah Langkawi (Langkawi Move).

A few days before the May 14 polls, de facto Pheu Thai party leader and self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra met with top officials of the Thai conservative establishment in a luxury hotel on Pulau Langkawi. Sources in Thai political circles shared photographs of participants of the secret meeting arriving separately on the Malaysian island close to Thailand.

The talk was that the conservative establishment, which had been behind the coup d’etat that ousted Thaksin on Sept 19, 2006, made a deal with Thaksin: Parties linked to the conservatives would support Pheu Thai, which was expected to win the most MPs, to form the government.

It was a win-win proposition.

Pheu Thai gets back in power and the conservative establishment prevents the anti-military/anti-royalty Move Forward Party from getting into power. And Thaksin, who had been in self-imposed exile for 15 years and sentenced in absentia for abuse of power would return home.

Prodigal son: Thaksin, with daughter Paetongtarn beside him, receiving a celebrity’s welcome from his supporters at Don Muang airport in Bangkok on Aug 22. — AP

During campaigning, Pheu Thai had to address concerns from the progressive electorate that it was planning to team up with the parties led by the “uncles”.

“Uncles” refer to then prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who led the 2014 coup against Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, and then deputy prime minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, who assisted Prayut’s coup. Prayut and Prawit are leaders of the United Thai Nation Party and the Palang Pracharath Party respectively.

On April 18, one of Pheu Thai’s prime minister candidates, Paetongtarn Shinawatra – Thaksin’s youngest daughter – told the media that her party would not join “parties from the opposite side”.

Paetongtarn said her face clearly showed she did not “enjoy” the two coups that ousted her father’s and her aunt’s governments: “About the next coalition government, I want everybody to look at my face – it certainly does not show like I liked the two recent coups,” she said.

“I have not answered the question of forming a coalition government clearly yet because I treat voters and this nation with respect.

“I also didn’t answer these questions because the election has not been held yet.”

In hindsight, Paetongtarn’s declaration reminds me of the pledge made in front of Umno party delegates ahead of Malaysia’s 15th General Election last November by Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi: “No Anwar [PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim], No DAP.” Well, we know how that turned out....

Then Langkah Langkawi hit a snag in Thailand: After the May 14 elections, the Move Forward Party won 151 seats out of 500, while Pheu Thai got 141.

This meant that Pheu Thai had to go through the motions of supporting the party with the most seats to bid for the prime minister post. “Go through the motions” only because it knew it was only a matter of time before Move Forward leader Pita Limja-roenrat’s attempt to get support for his PM bid would be rebuffed by the non-elected Senate.

“Pita himself knows he won’t be PM. He is bidding to be PM to show to Thais that the prime minister’s post would be stolen from him,” a Thai political analyst told me at the time.

“Pita’s plan is to continue with his progressive agenda for the country and go for the prime minister’s post in the next Thai polls.

“But it won’t be easy for Pita and the Move Forward Party. The powers-that-be might ban him from politics and dissolve the Move Forward Party to kill it so they can cling to power.”

If that happens, history would be repeating itself in Thailand: In 2020, the Constitutional Court dissolved the Future Forward Party, the previous reincarnation of Move Forward, and banned it from participating in politics for 10 years, along with its billionaire founder Thanathorn Juangroong-ruangkit.

After Pita failed to get enough votes to become PM, Pheu Thai was given the opportunity to get the numbers. It swiftly ditched Move Forward as an alliance partner and aligned with the conservative establishment, including two parties controlled by the uncles and the Bhumjaithai Party, which had won the third-most number of seats, at 71.

As scripted by Langkah Langkawi, the parties linked up with the coup-makers, and Pheu Thai is now in a coalition government.

The conservative establishment needs Pheu Thai and Thaksin to neutralise the rise of the Move Forward Party. Pita’s party is a force to be reckoned with after winning 38% of the votes cast in the Thai elections.

One way the conservatives can weaken Move Forward’s position is to replicate the economic boom associated with Thailand when Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.

Pheu Thai and the conservative establishment’s deal is somewhat ironic for Thai political watchers. The conservatives and Thaksin have been rivals for power since 2006. They were reportedly behind the military coup against Thaksin and again against Yingluck.

On Aug 21, Thaksin returned home to a celebrity’s welcome even if he was immediately led off to jail. The Supreme Court had sentenced him in absentia to eight years of jail for three convictions: one linked to his former company, another to a bank loan, and the third to a lottery case.

The former PM returned to the country the same day the Thai Parliament elected Srettha Thavisin as Prime Minister. Srettha was one of three Pheu Thai PM candidates.

Thaksin received a royal pardon on Friday, which reduced his jail sentence to a year.

The whispered about Langkah Langkawi (and other secret deals inside and outside Thailand) has succeeded.