One man, but not one message

IF Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim were a rock band, he’d be Coldplay.

According to Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar, those around the Prime Minister liken Anwar to the British rock band that will be performing to a sold out crowd in Bukit Jalil National Stadium in November – tickets were, infamously, being offered with 400% markups online by scalpers after the venue sold out within three hours of tickets going on sale last month.

“The fans are excited; they are in awe of the PM,” said Hisommudin.

But outside the concert in Bukit Jalil, Hishommudin said the audience in Tanjung Karang or Kuala Terengganu might not be in awe of Anwar’s performance as Prime Minister.

“For the Malay voters, they are in a tunggu dan lihat (wait and see) mode. They are not excited. The Malays want a personal touch. They can see Anwar on television, but there is no personal touch,” he said.

Hisommudin’s analogy is apt.

The urban crowd are excited about the Coldplay concert. But leaders of Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional, representing mostly rural constituencies, are calling on the government to cancel the band’s first ever concert in Malaysia.

The analyst with think tank Ilham said when his team went to the ground for a survey, many respondents stated that the unity government is very dependent on the image and popularity of the Prime Minister.

He agreed, pointing out that the focal point of the unity government is centred only on the tenth PM (or PMX, as Anwar has widely become dubbed on social media).

But Hisommudin questioned whether Anwar’s popularity with specific segments of the Malaysian population will translate into votes for the unity government in the upcoming polls in six peninsula states.

“Will the Malays vote for the unity government?” he wondered.

“We can see that the unity government is facing attacks from the Opposition [Perikatan] saying that Islam and Malays are ‘under threat’. And these attacks are not being answered or countered by the government media or parties in the unity government.”

While Perikatan’s messaging is focused, the Ilham analyst said the unity government’s isn’t.

“Their messaging is scattered. Sekejap [for a moment], Madani. Sekejap, unity goverment. Sekejap, Prime Minister,” he said.

“What is the grand design of the narrative that the government arranges? What is its direction? For me, the government does not have a strategy to neutralise the attack by Perikatan, which is effective and efficient.”

Hisommudin said Perikatan could get Malay support by using race and religion.

“All its campaigns on social media, ceramah, through media statements or speeches in Parliament are focused on these issues,” he said.

For him, elections in Kedah, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor, and Terengganu will be a referendum to pick which coalition – the unity government or Perikatan – has the support of the Malays.The analyst said Perikatan has an edge in the three states it rules, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu. The big fight will be over the other three states, which are controlled by the backbone of the unity government, Pakatan Harapan: Negri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor.

Based on Ilham’s survey, he said Perikatan could win at least two-thirds of the 33 Malay majority seats in Selangor, which has 56 state seats.

He predicted it will still be difficult for Perikatan to win Selangor and Penang. But it is different in Negri Sembilan, he said.

Even though Perikatan is not strong in the state as Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and PAS machinery is minimal there, he said Perikatan performed well in that state in the 15th General Election (GE15) in November 2022.

The Ilham analyst said while Perikatan got zero MP seats in Negri Sembilan in GE15, it still managed to win 34% of the Malay votes.

“It had good messaging during campaigning,” he said.

He said it would be difficult for Perikatan to win Negri Sembilan now as Umno is still strong in the state. But for him, the question is whether Umno’s support among Malays will dip and Perikatan’s will rise in the state polls.

Hisommudin said Umno is entering the six state elections with its support among Malays on the wane. And the reasons for that are external and internal.

The party’s image, he said, suffered because Perikatan and Pakatan attacked Umno’s president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi during GE15.

“Both coalitions attacked Umno, saying that a vote for Barisan Nasional candidates was a vote for Zahid to be PM,” he said.

The internal fight in Umno between the court cluster (leaders facing corruption charges) and Putrajaya cluster (those who were ministers in government) before and after GE15 weakened the party, Hisommudin said.

In his on-the-ground survey in Selangor, the analyst found that young Malay voters do not see Umno as the “defenders of Malays”.

“What reaches them is the negative image of Umno: corruption, weak leadership, and internal fighting. The young Malay generation is not confident about Umno,” he said.

But how about the corruption charges against Perikatan chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin? I asked.

“There was some effect, but it depends on the radius of the information reaching them. The young Malays in urban areas have heard about the charges, but will it influence them?” he said.

“For example, Perikatan has countered that the corruption charges are political prosecution by the Anwar government. It is revenge on Perikatan leaders. They [young Malays] can’t differentiate the information that they – especially the rural youth – receive.”

Hisommudin argued that this is the weakness of the explanation by the unity government or the parties in the ruling coalition.

“In the past, it took time for issues like 1MDB or GST [the goods and services tax] to reach rural voters. Also, the attack by the government and the parties in the ruling coalition on the Perikatan corruption issue is short. It was, at the maximum, about one month,” he said.Note to advisers of PMX: Listen beyond the Coldplay bubble.