Unsettled in Thailand

Uncertain dawn: Pita (centre) at the meeting of coalition parties on Monday. Whether the young leader of the Move Forward Party will become Thailand’s new leader in a non-military-influenced government still remains to be seen. — Bloomberg

IS it too early to congratulate Pita Limjaroenrat as the new prime minister of Thailand?

After the May 14 elections, his party may have won the most parliamentary seats – 151 out of 500 – in the polls and formed a coalition with 312 MPs, but there is no guarantee that he will be the PM.

On Monday, Pita’s Move Forward Party signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with seven other parties, including former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party, which won 141 seats.

“Today we’re here to announce the forming of a democratic coalition by the people,” said Pita, flanked by leaders from the other seven parties.

“My coalition is taking shape. And we have a very clear roadmap from today until the day I become PM.”

There are speed bumps ahead in that roadmap, though: There is that small matter of 250 senators.

Thailand’s Parliament is made up of 750 lawmakers: 500 elected MPs and 250 appointed senators – all senators are appointed by the ruling military junta that took over the country in a coup in 2014. So even after signing an MOU that gives him a clear majority among elected MPs, securing the top job is not a sure thing for Pita, 42.

Politically and mathematically, it is possible the losers of the Thai polls could form the next government. The pro-military parties are Bhumjaithai (71 MPs), the Palang Pracharath Party (led by General Prawit Wongsuwon with 40 MPs) and United Thai Nation (headed by incumbent prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, with 36 MPs).

In the military-installed political system, those 250 senators appointed by the coup leaders will join the 500 elected MPs in a parliamentary vote for the next PM. This means that Pita’s 312-seat coalition bloc must get the support of at least 376 MPs and senators for the Move Forward Party leader to become premier.

Can Pita get at least 64 senators to support him?

Some senators are against Pita as the Move Forward Party has a strong stance on the lèse majesté law: It campaigned against the law, which criminalises any criticism of the Thai monarchy.

Then there’s the small matter of coalition politics.

Pita has to juggle the demands of his seven coalition partners. The current contentious issue between the Move Forward Party (with the highest number of MPs) and Pheu Thai (with the second highest) is the powerful House Speaker position.

According to the Bangkok Post, the House Speaker is “one of the most important roles in politics, overseeing House meetings and the agenda. If the MFP wants to push its legislative initiatives and fulfil its campaign promises, it needs to take control of the post.”

“Another important task of the House Speaker is to submit the name of a prime minister selected by Parliament for royal endorsement,” it reported.

Both parties want the job.

The speculation is that Pheu Thai might ditch the coalition because of the rift over this position.

There’s also the small matter of who the powers-that-be want ruling the kingdom – these mysterious and influential powers-that-be are an open secret in Thai politics. Will they consent to Pita, or at least someone from the Move Forward Party, leading Thailand? Do they prefer a coalition government which includes military-backed parties? Pita’s coalition excludes such parties.

Before the polls, the speculation was that Pheu Thai would win big and that it would form a coalition government with the military-backed Phalang Pracharath and other pro-junta parties. There were whispers of secret meetings between Thaksin, the former PM who was ousted in a coup d’état in 2006, and powerful generals in locations near Thailand before the elections.

Could Pheu Thai be gunning for the prime minister’s post? It is possible that if Pita fails to get elected as PM, his coalition will collapse, forcing another alliance, perhaps led by Pheu Thai this time to cobble together a new coalition with the support of most of the military-junta-appointed senators.

But for this to happen, Pheu Thai has to go through the motions of forming a coalition government with the Move Forward Party first, which is the preferred choice of most Thais at the ballot box.

Urban constituents voted overwhelmingly for Pita’s party. Take the results in Bangkok: The Move Forward Party won 32 out of 33 MP seats, with the remaining seat going to Pheu Thai. In other words, the people of economically and socially influential Bangkok rejected the military-backed parties.

If Pita fails in his attempt to form a coalition government, then Pheu Thai will probably push forward Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, or property tycoon Srettha Thavisin as the next prime minister.

There is also the small matter of the military-backed parties forming a government.

According to The Nation newspaper, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul could become the PM.

“This formula produces a minority government of 183 MPs – comprising MPs from Bhumjaithai (70), Palang Pracharath (40), United Thai Nation (36), Democrat (25), Chart Thai Pattana (10), and Chart Pattana Kla (two),” it reported.

“To cope with the Opposition’s overwhelming victory, government coalition parties would take advantage of the 250 senate votes to get their PM candidate elected and form a minority government.”

Anything can happen in Thai politics. I saw some of it when I was based in Bangkok from 2006 to 2010. I covered a coup, street protests (from both sides of the political divide), and the banning of anti-military politicians from politics.

It really is too early to congratulate Pita.